Macro Briefing: 21 January 2021

* Biden signs 17 excecutive orders on Wed., reversing several Trump policies
* Biden will sign 10 executive orders today, including new Covid-19 plan
* Biden’s overall policy agenda depends on results in battling Covid-19
* Biden faces several major economic challenges in the months ahead
* US homebuilder sentiment eases in Jan but still reflects bullish conditions
* US stock market (S&P 500) rises to record high on first day of Biden presidency:

Macro Briefing: 20 January 2021

* Washington under tight security for today’s Biden inauguration ceremony
* Biden plans blizzard of executive orders to reverse Trump policies
* Yellen, next Treasury Secretary, promotes sweeping stimulus package
* Treasury nominee Yellen: US can afford higher corporate tax rate
* UK annual inflation picks up to 0.6% in Dec but still well below BoE’s 2% target
* Eurozone annual inflation remained negative in December at -0.3%
* Eurozone is capping bond yields–with a European twist
* US Treasury market’s 5-year implied inflation forecast rises to 3yr high: 2.12%:

Macro Briefing: 19 January 2021

* Biden plans to unveil sweeping immigration bill on first day as president
* Yellen to promote “big” coronavirus relief package to Senate Fin. Comm. today
* Biden administration prepares to focus on full-employment policies
* German investor sentiment rises more than expected in January
* Extreme weather and infectious diseases are cited by WEO as top 2021 risks
* Pandemic has intensified rivalry between US and China, WEO report says
* 10-year Treasury yield begins trading this week at 1.11%, a 10-month high:

Macro Briefing: 18 January 2021

* Biden plans rollbacks of Trump era policy decisions on Wednesday
* China reports 6.5% GDP growth for Q4 & and 2.3% for 2020
* Russian opposition leader Navalny’s arrest heightens Russia-West tensions
* Incoming Treasury Sec. Yellen expected to affirm market-based exchange rates
* Weak value investing results weigh on quant strategies
* US industrial output up a strong 1.6% in December
* NY Fed Mfg Index shows softer growth in January
* US retail sales fell for a third month in December:

Book Bits: 16 January 2021

The New Great Depression: Winners and Losers in a Post-Pandemic World
James Rickards
Quote by author via Global Finance
“I did not live through the Great Depression, but my parents did and they were affected for life,” says James Rickards, author of The New Great Depression: Winners and Losers in a Post Pandemic World. “This will be very similar.” A 2020 study published by the Federal Reserve of San Francisco looked at 650 years of pandemics and found that monetary policy, economic growth and other policies do not normalize for 30 to 40 years. “If 2019 is your base year to define normal,” Rickards says, “well, we’ll never see normal again. Ever.”

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The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 15 Jan 2021

In this issue:

  • The small-cap equity rally continues
  • Portfolio-strategy benchmarks take a hit
  • Broad-based market losses weigh on managed-risk strategies

Small-cap stocks are pricing in a rosy 2021: There are still plenty of risks lurking, including uncertainty over what the incoming Biden administration will be able to accomplish. The President-elect on Thursday outlined an ambitious $1.9 trillion pandemic relief program that, if enacted, would go a long way in juicing the economy. Whether his policy prescription survives the tortured politics of the Beltway in the weeks ahead is an open question. For now, shares in the small-cap realm appear to be anticipating a rosy year ahead (or at least one that compares favorably vs. annus horribilis that just ended).

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