Macro Briefing | 6 August 2020

Still no sign of a deal between GOP and Dems on coronavirus relief: TH
Bank of England leaves rates unchanged, warns of slow recovery: CNBC
German manufacturing orders surged in June: MW
World food prices continued to rise in July: Reuters
World economy expands in July, first time since January: IHS Markit
US ISM Services PMI: sector growth picked up in July: MW
US Services PMI: sector’s business activity stabilizes but demand fades: IHS Markit
US private payrolls rise by only 167,000 in July–far below expectations: CNBC

US Economy Remains Vulnerable Amid Wave Of Ongoing Layoffs

Employment is expected to rebound again in this week’s update on payrolls in July, but it’s still premature to equate positive monthly hiring comparisons with an all-clear signal for the labor-market and economic outlook. A more reliable measure of what’s brewing can be found in two weekly reports: initial and continuing jobless claims. On both fronts, the numbers are still flashing warnings.

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Macro Briefing | 5 August 2020

Search for survivors continues in Beirut after massive blast at port: BBC
Dems and GOP report progress on coronavirus relief bill: CNBC
Risk of conflict between China and Taiwan may be rising: CNBC
One-fifth of US small businesses dismiss or plant to dismiss workers: BBG
Looking for investment wins if the Dems sweep in November: II
Eurozone Composite PMI: output rose at fastest rate in 2 years in July: IHS Markit
UK Services PMI posts strongest rise in five years in July: IHS Markit
China Services PMI: growth slowed in July: Reuters
US factory orders rose for a second month in June: MW
Gold continues to rally, reaching record high: BBC

Macro Briefing | 4 August 2020

No agreement yet between White House and Dems on coronavirus relief: CNBC
Trump says US Treasury should get payout if American firm buys Tik Tok: BBC
China won’t accept US’s ‘theft’ of TikTok: Bloomberg
Trump claims authority to issue executive order on mail-in voting: Politico
Is Turkey a threat to NATO from within? NY Times
Coronavirus reinforces Fed’s role as lender to the world: WSJ
Global manufacturing activity expands in July–first growth since Jan: IHS Markit
US construction spending slumped to a one-year low in June: Reuters
US Mfg PMI: mfg sector continued to rebound in July: IHS Markit
US ISM Mfg Index: sector growth in July at fastest pace in 15 months: MW

Macro Briefing | 3 August 2020

Dr Birx, White House task force coordinator: US in ‘new phase’ of pandemic: CNN
US stimulus plans still deadlocked in Washington: CNBC
Fed may end policy of pre-emptively lifting rates to fight inflation: WSJ
New US Covid-19 cases and deaths fell to 4-week lows on Aug 2: JHU
Is US dollar’s slide a reaction to country’s struggle with coronavirus? BBG
Microsoft says it’s still in talks to buy China’s US division of TikTok: NYT
Lord & Taylor, oldest dept. store in US, files for bankruptcy: NPR
Eurozone Mfg PMI survey data shows a return to modest growth in July: IHS Markit
UK mfg output rises to 32-month high as growth returns in July: IHS Markit
US 10-year Treasury real yield fell to -1.0% last week, a record low:

Book Bits | 1 August 2020

How to Destroy America in Three Easy Steps
Ben Shapiro
Excerpt via NY Post
It is simply undeniable that capitalism, founded on protection of property rights — the ideology of the Founding Fathers — has been uniquely successful in spreading peace and prosperity both domestically and around the globe. Since the dawn of the Enlightenment, the enshrinement of individual rights, and the advent of protection for private property — the roots of capitalism — global GDP has increased exponentially, in shocking fashion.

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After A Record Drop In US GDP For Q2, What’s Next?

The epic decline in US economic output in the second quarter was the deepest dive in GDP on record that surprised exactly no one. Economists and macro models have for months been projecting a massive decline as the nation’s economy shut down to combat Covid-19. Government figures released yesterday confirmed the worst fears, which clears the way to focus on the second half of the year.

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Macro Briefing | 31 July 2020

Trump suggests delaying US election; GOP and Dems reject the idea: Reuters
No deal in sight in Congress for virus relief bill: Bloomberg
Hurricane Isaias threatens US east coast in the days ahead: NHC
Big Tech reports strong growth in earnings and revenue: WSJ
Coronavirus has strengthened power and reach of Big Tech: CNN
Eurozone GDP fell dramatically in Q2, posting biggest decline on record: DW
China’s economic recovery continues in July via PMI survey data: SCMP
Weekly jobless claims continue to rise sharply–up 1.434mm last week: CNBC
US GDP crashed in Q2, dropping 32.9% at seasonally adjusted annual rate: MW