Macro Briefing: 13 February 2019

Trump considers delay on China tariffs set for March 2: CNBC
China’s President Xi to meet US trade officials on Friday: SCMP
Trump will agree to spending plan to avert shutdown… maybe: Politico
Fed Chair Powell: US economy remains “strong”: MNI
Eurozone industrial output’s slide accelerated in December: Reuters
Rising global oil supply on track to outpace demand in 2019: Reuters
UK inflation fell to 2-year low in January: Reuters
Small US business optimism fell to lowest level since late-2016: NFIB
US job openings rise to record high (since 2000) in Dec: CNBC

Macro Briefing: 12 February 2019

Congressional legislators announce deal to avert gov’t shutdown: Politico
Will Trump accept less than he’s demanded for border wall? Bloomberg
Upbeat outlook on trade supports market sentiment: Reuters
China’s economic slowdown is modest but widespread: WSJ
Proxy voting records: big money managers favor short-term corp proposals: II
The evidence is weak in favor of factor timing for equity investing: ETF.com
The idea of a Federal wealth tax is topical, but is it constitutional? New York
Wall Street analysts have been cutting corporate earnings projections: NY Times

Macro Briefing: 11 February 2019

US gov’t shutdown risk rises as budget talks break down: Reuters
IMF’s new chief economist supports Fed’s pause on rate hikes: FT
Trump’s NAFTA replacement faces challenges in Congress: Axios
US dollar near 6-week high amid worries over global growth: CNBC
Krugman: global recession risk is rising: CNBC
Japan’s Q4 GDP expected to post modest growth: MNI
Delayed US GDP report for Q4 rescheduled for Feb 28: BEA
US warships again challenge China’s claims in South China Sea: CNN
Pompeo heads to Central Europe to counter Russia and China’s sway: Politico
UK economy contracted in Dec under Brexit strain: Bloomberg

Book Bits | 9 February 2019

The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work
By Richard Baldwin
Review via The Times
The robots are coming for white-collar jobs. Just as millions of manufacturing jobs were lost in the 1970s and 1980s, the next phase of automation — what the author calls the “globotics” upheaval, a portmanteau of globalisation and robotics — will make between one in six and one in ten jobs obsolete.
The impending Globotics Revolution will leave professionals in the West competing with zero-wage thinking computers (white-collar robots) and lower-wage graduates in the developing world (tele-migrants). Engineers, accountants, lawyers, most service-sector jobs, office workers and middle managers — all are under threat from the globots.
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Research Review | 8 February 2019 | ESG Investing

Can Sustainable Investment Yield Better Financial Returns:
A Comparative Study of ESG Indices and MSCI Indices

Mansi Jain (Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University), et al.
2 February 2019
‘Sustainable investment’ includes a variety of asset classes selected while caring for the causes of environmental, social, and governance (ESG). It is an investment strategy that seeks to combine social and/or environmental benefits with financial returns, thus linking investor’s social, ethical, ecological and economic concerns… The purpose of this paper is to study whether the sustainable investment alternatives offer better financial returns than the conventional indices from both developed and emerging markets… The results indicate that there is no significant difference in the performance between sustainable indices and the traditional conventional indices….
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Macro Briefing: 8 February 2019

Trump expected to ban Chinese telecom equipment in US next week: Politico
Trump won’t meet China’s Xi before March 1 tariff deadline: Bloomberg
Trump probably can’t force another gov’t shutdown: Politico
Softer growth expected for Europe and UK: MarketWatch
Italy’s industrial output fell for fourth straight month in December: Bloomberg
Supreme Court blocks abortion law in narrow ruling: CNN
Proposed BB&T-Sun Trust merger is biggest US bank deal in a decade: Reuters
Amazon’s Bezos accuses American Media of blackmail: WSJ
US consumer credit for Dec rose above $4 trillion for first time: MW
US jobless claims pulled back last week after spiking: Reuters

Macro Briefing: 7 February 2019

House intelligence chair annouces probe into Trump’s finances, Russia links: CNN
German industrial output continues to fall: Reuters
European Commission predicts Germany avoided recession in Q4: Bloomberg
European Commission’s VP: Italy’s fragile economy is a risk: CNBC
Mfg productivity in US rose 1.3% in Q4, up from 1.1% in previous quarter: MW
US trade deficit narrowed by more than expected in Nov: CNBC
US mortgage applications fell again last week, slipping to 10-mo low: Reuters
Initial US Q4 GDP report re-scheduled for release on Feb 28: BEA
GDPNow estimate of US Q4 GDP growth ticks up to +2.7%: Atlanta Fed