Macro Briefing: 6 February 2019

Trump’s State of the Union speech was wide-ranging: Politico
In speech to Congress, Trump vows to build border wall: Reuters
Trump will meet N. Korea’s Kim later this month in Vietnam: ABC
German factory orders fell again in Dec, fanning recession fear: Bloomberg
It’s a bull market for purchases of gold by central banks: NY Times
US ISM Non-Mfg Index: softer but still moderate growth prevailed in Jan: BB
“Solid output expansion” in Jan for US private sector via Composite PMI: IHS Markit
Eurozone PMI: growth weakened for 5th straight month in Jan: IHS Markit
PMI survey: Global growth continued to slow January: IHS Markit

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 5 February 2019

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) rebounded to an annualized 4.5% in January after slipping to 4.2% at the end of 2018. Today’s revised estimate for GMI (an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes except cash) represents the ex ante premium over the projected “risk-free” rate for the long run.
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Macro Briefing: 5 February 2019

What’s in store tonight for Trump’s State of Union address?: Bloomberg
Fed chairman and Trump met at White House on Monday: CNBC
PMI: Eurozone growth eases in January: IHS Markit
Himalayan glaciers at risk from global warming: USA Today
Should Congress stimulate the economy now to avoid recession later? NY Times
Light-vehicle sales in Jan fell below 17million units–first time since Aug: AutoWeek
US factory orders fell sharply in Nov; 1yr growth trend continues to weaken: MW

Macro Briefing: 4 February 2019

A new government shutdown for US may be brewing: Bloomberg
Suspension of nuclear treaty by US and Russia spark fear of new arms race: CNBC
UK and Spain recognize Guaidó as Venezuela’s president: BBC
Pope makes historic visit to Middle East: BBC
The big tech stocks are no longer driving the stock market: NY Times
US consumer sentiment slumped in Jan to lowest level since Trump elected: MW
ISM survey data: US manufacturing activity picked up in Jan: CNN
US Mfg PMI: output in mfg sector strengthened to 4-month high in Jan: IHS Markit
US payrolls rose sharply in January, beating all forecasts: Bloomberg
Construction spending for US rose 0.8% in Nov: MW
Crude oil price (W. Texas Int.) on Friday rose to highest close since mid-November:

Book Bits | 2 February 2019

Downhill from Here: Retirement Insecurity in the Age of Inequality
By Katherine S. Newman
Review via The Washington Post
“Downhill from here” is an exquisitely ambiguous phrase for the state of retirement security in America. It might suggest a restful and well-earned glide down the back of the mountain that one has climbed in a lifetime of hard work. But the same phrase can mean nearly the opposite — a descent into hardship or suffering.
It is the latter, darker meaning that sets the tone for Katherine S. Newman’s excellent new book, “Downhill From Here: Retirement Insecurity in the Age of Inequality.” But Newman’s title also evokes the contrast between what retirement means in today’s America and what it is supposed to mean.
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Macro Briefing: 1 February 2019

Trump is upbeat about trade talks with China: WSJ
Trump: border talks with Congress a ‘waste of time’: NY Times
Economists expect softer growth in today’s payrolls report for Jan: Bloomberg
Gov’t shutdown may complicate analysis of today’s payrolls report: NY Times
Eurozone mfg inches closer to stagnation in Jan: IHS Markit
China Mfg PMI: survey data reflects slight contraction in Jan: IHS Markit
The Fed’s pause on rate hikes suggests softer growth ahead: Reuters
Chicago PMI: growth cooled in January to moderate pace: Chicago PMI
US wage growth in Q4 exceeded 3% for first time in a decade: CNBC
US job cuts up 19% year-over-year in January: CG&C
Jobless claims in US surged last week, possibly due to seasonal quirk: MW
New home sales in US rose sharply in Nov but annual pace is still negative: WSJ