The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to inch up in August, reaching an annualized 5.0% — fractionally higher vs. the estimate in the previous month. The projection reflects the annualized return over the estimated “risk-free” rate for the long run for GMI, an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes.
New offensive operations begin in Syria: NY Times
Trump considers a government shutdown ahead of elections: Bloomberg
Senate confirmation hearing for Kavanaugh begins with chaos: Reuters
US ISM Mfg Index soared to 14-year high last month: MarketWatch
Global Mfg PMI fell to 21-month low in August: IHS Markit
US Mfg PMI dipped to nine-month low in August: IHS Markit
Construction spending in US ticked up 0.1% in July: AP
SUV sales in US rose sharply again in August: CNBC
Selling continues to weigh on assets in emerging markets: Bloomberg
US equities topped the performance ledger for a second straight month in August for the major asset classes. The gain marked the fifth straight monthly increase and the strongest for the US stock market since January.
Trump warns Syria, Iran and Russia on new offensive in Syrian province: Reuters
Italy’s spending plans are rattling markets again: MarketWatch
GOP looks for plan to avoid gov’t shutdown ahead of elections: Politico
Considering Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court confirmation hearings this week: CNBC
South Africa falls into recession for first time since 2009: Bloomberg
UK Manufacturing PMI slips to 25-month low: IHS Markit
Amazon is moving into the online advertising industry: NY Times
Chicago PMI fell in August–first slide in five months: Chicago ISM
US Consumer Index dipped to 7-month low in August: CNBC
The good news this Labor Day regarding the celebratory subject du jour: there’s more of it. The quality of the jobs minted in recent years is a topic that’s open for debate, but the quantity is certainly moving in the right direction: US civilian employment reached 155.965 million, as of July 2018 — a record high.
It’s been a rough year for emerging markets. Stocks, bonds, and currencies in these countries have generally taken a hit in 2018. Not surprisingly, the US dollar has been strengthening.
Trump prepared to escalate trade war with China: Reuters
China’s factory activity strengthened in August: Bloomberg
White House set to announce expansion of retirement plans for small firms: ABC
Trump says Dems can’t impeach him because economy is strong: Bloomberg
Currency crisis spreads, weighing on assets in emerging markets: CNBC
Weekly US jobless claims show labor market still tightening: CNBC
US inflation at six-year high in July: Bloomberg
Consumer spending up sharply in July–5th straight gain: MarketWatch
The US equity market has had a volatile year, but the higher risk has paid off… big time. In absolute and relative terms the numbers speak volumes. And the outperformance isn’t limited to recent history. Over a five-year trailing period, for example, the stock market in the US has left the rest of major asset classes in the dust.
Trump claims “left-wing violence” is coming if Dems win in fall: BBC
Trump counters Sec. of Defense: no need for US-S. Korea war games: Reuters
Trump: Canada will rejoin US-Mexico trade deal ahead of Fri deadline: CNBC
US oil sanctions expected to send Iran’s economy into recession: USA Today
Researchers find more anomalies in China’s economic data: SCMP
US Q2 GDP growth revised up slightly to 4.2%: MarketWatch
Pretax corporate profits for US firms up 7.7% in Q2, the most in 4 years: LA Times
US Pending Home Sales Index down for 7th straight month in July: CNBC
Democrats projected to retake House in fall elections: FiveThirtyEight.com