Macro Briefing: 7 June 2018

Fed set to raise rates above inflation for first time in a decade: Reuters
German factory orders fell for fourth month in April: Bloomberg
Unionized UPS workers move closer to a strike: USA Today
India’s central bank hikes rates for first time in four years: CNNMoney
The US labor market may not be as strong as it appears: MNI
Trade deficit for US shrinks for second month: AP
US productivity drops nearly by half in first quarter: MarketWatch
Tech stocks drive rally in US equities: Bloomberg
US stock market (S&P 500) rallies to highest close since mid-March:

Is The Modest Rebound In Commercial Lending Sustainable?

In late-2017 some analysts warned that the sliding annual growth rate for commercial and industrial lending in the US would soon turn negative, raising a warning sign for the US economy. But the dark forecast fell flat. US recession risk is virtually nil and early estimates for second-quarter GDP growth point to a firmer trend as the year-over-year change for loan growth continued to pick up through April.
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Macro Briefing: 6 June 2018

Democrats enjoyed an edge in Tuesday’s primary results: The Hill
Mexico retaliates by imposing trade tariffs on US: Reuters
China maintains resolve after US bombers fly near disputed islands: Reuters
US-China relations at risk of further deterioration over conflicts: Guardian
A major UPS labor strike in US may be lurking: CNN
Global PMI: world economic growth rate rose to 3-month high in May: IHS Markit
US job openings exceeded unemployed workers in April: LA Times
ISM Non-Mfg Index: services sector expanded faster than expected: Bloomberg
US Services PMI ticks up to 2-year high in May: IHS Markit

US GDP Growth For Q2 Is Still On Track To Rebound

Recent estimates for US economic output in the second quarter continue to anticipate a robust acceleration after the subdued rise in Q1, based on the median of several forecasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The current projections see real GDP growth in Q2 picking up to 3.7% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from Q1’s 2.2%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to publish its initial GDP report for the second-quarter on July 27.
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Macro Briefing: 5 June 2018

Iran set to resume enriching uranium if nuclear deal fails: BBC
S. Korea downplays odds for peace treaty at upcoming US-N. Korea summit: WSJ
Twitter stock pops on news it will be added to S&P 500: CNBC
Will Trump’s trade war derail the global economy? Bloomberg
PMI: Eurozone economic growth rate dips to 1-1/2 year low in May: IHS Markit
US factory orders in April slide on weak demand for aircraft: Reuters
NABE economists: Trump’s tax cuts could trigger US recession: Money Magazine
Wall St economists expect strong pickup in US Q2 GDP growth: CNBC
10yr/2yr Treasury yield spread close to setting new low:

Macro Briefing: 4 June 2018

China warns US that trade deals are void if tariffs are imposed: BBC
US allies push for Trump to rethink US trade policy: Bloomberg
US considering more South China Sea patrols to confront China: Reuters
GOP is cool to idea that Trump could pardon himself: The Hill
ISM: US manufacturing sector growth strengthened in May: MarketWatch
US Mfg PMI: “marked improvement in May: IHS Markit
US construction spending surged in Apr from strong home building: LA Times
US payrolls rose 223,000 in May, the most in three months: NY Times

Book Bits | 2 June 2018

Tailspin: The People and Forces Behind America’s Fifty-Year Fall–and Those Fighting to Reverse It
By Steven Brill
Review via Salon
Lawyer, journalist and entrepreneur Steven Brill has just published an important new book, “Tailspin: The People and Forces Behind America’s Fifty-Year Fall — and Those Fighting to Reverse It,” with an excerpt published by Time magazine last week. His thesis is quite simple at its core, as expressed by Yale Law School professor Daniel Markovits, at the graduation ceremony for the class of 2015. Over the past 50 years, American meritocracy has become, in a way, its opposite, “a mechanism for the dynastic transmission of wealth and privilege across generations. Meritocracy now constitutes a modern-day aristocracy.”
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