Macro Briefing: 21 September 2018

US imposes sanctions on China for buying Russian military equipment: Reuters
European Council president: UK’s Brexit plan “will not work”: BBC
Fed Chairman Powell talks to Congress re: the central bank’s independence: CNBC
Existing home sales in US unchanged in August: Reuters
Leading indicators for US signaling continued economic expansion: CB
US stock market indexes — Dow & S&P 500 — close at record highs: LA Times
US jobless claims slip to 49-year low, partly due to Hurricane Florence: MW
Philly Fed Mfg Index rebounds in September following sharp fall in August: MW
US 10yr/German 10-year yield spread at record high: 2.60 percentage points:

Macro Briefing: 20 September 2018

US prepared to resume denuclearization talks with North Korea: Reuters
Polls continue to give Dems edge for taking back House in Nov: RCP
China set to cut average trade tariffs for most of its partners: Bloomberg
Will China retaliate in trade war by selling its massive Treasury holdings? NY Post
The paradoxical US economy: low wages and low unemployment: The Atlantic
JP Morgan’s Dimon: cyber warfare is biggest risk to the financial system: CNBC
2-year Treasury yield returns to 2008 highs: CNBC
US housing starts: 1yr change rebounded in Aug as trend for building permits fell:

A Tale Of Two Consumer Sector Returns: Discretionary vs. Staples

Ahead of revisions to the US equity sector landscape in a few days, the existing definitions show that consumer discretionary, technology, and health care shares continue to lead this year, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. The upcoming reshuffling may reorder the horse race, but for now these three sectors are the dominant year-to-date performers through yesterday’s close (Sep. 18). Meanwhile, shares that comprise the so-called consumer staples sector are in the red year to date, posting the second-worst performance for the major sectors.
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Macro Briefing: 19 September 2018

Kavanaugh accuser asks for FBI investigation before she’ll testify: Reuters
Chinese premier: gov’t facing ‘greater difficulties’ in keeping economy stable: CNBC
China’s options dwindling for responding to Trump’s trade war: NY Times
Is China’s plunge-protection Team set to prop up falling stock market? Bloomberg
China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell to 6-month low in July: Bloomberg
North and South Korea agree to fostering “era of no war”: CNN
British inflation jumped unexpectedly to a six-month high in August Reuters
Soybean prices slumped to a decade-low on Tuesday: Business Insider
US homebuilder sentiment holds steady in Sep, signaling high confidence: MND
Policy sensitive 2-year Treasury yield edges up to 2.81%, a post-recession high:

Macro Briefing: 18 September 2018

Trump OKs more trade tariffs on China: Reuters
Flooding in Carolinas after hurricane to linger for days… or weeks? USA Today
N. Korea’s Kim hopes for “big outcome” for summit with S. Korea’s Moon: Reuters
Russia blames Israel for military plane shot down near Syria: BBC
Supreme Court nominee vote delayed; accuser to testify on Monday: The Hill
Senate leader works to save Kavanaugh as Supreme Court nominee: Politico
US to cut number of refugees to 30,000 next year: BBC
WEF report: robotics and AI will create net job growth by 2022: Gizmodo
Alibaba’s Jack Ma: US-China trade war could last 20 years: Bloomberg
Will trade tariffs save US factories? History leaves room for doubt: NY Times
NY Fed Mfg Index fell to 5-month low but still signaling solid growth: NY Fed

Macro Briefing: 17 September 2018

Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination in doubt after allegations: The Hill
Hurricane Florence: ‘worst is still yet to come’ for Carolinas: CNN
Typhoon Mangkhut slams southern China: RTE
Reports that US is set to impose more tariffs on China worry investors: Reuters
Stocks in China slide to lowest level in nearly 4 years: Bloomberg
Markets pricing in less hawkish monetary policy vs Fed’s outlook: St Louis Fed
Will the strong economy influence voters in Nov? Maybe not: NY Times
Import prices for US post largest drop in 1-1/2 years in August: CNBC
US business inventories up in July, signaling healthy economy: MarketWatch
Consumer sentiment jumps to 6-month high in September: Blooomberg
US auto production helped lift US industrial output in August: Reuters
One-year US retail spending holds steady at healthy pace through August:

Book Bits | 15 September 2018

Big Debt Crises
Also available as a free pdf
By Ray Dalio
Review via MarketWatch
Let’s make one thing perfectly clear: Ray Dalio sees parallels between the U.S. today and during the unstable 1930s, but the billionaire hedge-fund manager does not expect the next financial crisis to rival the one that knee-capped Americans in 2008 and nearly triggered another Great Depression.
That said, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, is concerned that when the downturn hits — likely within the next couple of years, by his reckoning — investors, companies, politicians and policy makers will be blindsided, or worse. Capitalism and democracy, our system of government, will be under heavier fire than it is already.
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