Macro Briefing: 27 April 2018

Korea’s leaders agree to formally end war, pursue denuclearization: Bloomberg
Pompeo, newly confirmed as Secretary of State, embarks on foreign trip: Politico
Soft consumer spending expected to weigh on US growth in Q1: Reuters
Solid data for big tech dispels notion of weakness for the industry: Bloomberg
Jobless claims fell last week to lowest since 1969: WSJ
Aircraft lifts US durable goods orders, but otherwise report is mixed: MarketWatch
US business investment slides in first quarter: WSJ
US trade deficit eases in March–first time in 7 months: MarketWatch
Kansas City Fed Mfg Index surges in April: Bond Buyer
ECB leaves policy unchanged after softer euro area economic data in Q1: FT
GDPNow Q1 growth estimates for US holds at 2.0% vs. 2.9% in Q4: Atlanta Fed

Backtesting Four Portfolio Optimization Strategies In R

Investing strategies run the gamut, but every portfolio shares a common goal: delivering optimal results. The catch is that there’s a wide range of possibilities for defining optimal and so your mileage may vary, depending on preferences, assets, and other factors. Eran Raviv offers a useful review by comparing how four strategies with different portfolio-design strategies stack up via number-crunching in R with the FRAPO package. Let’s build on his profile by analyzing how the strategies fare with a broader set of asset classes based on resetting the optimized weights at the end of each year starting in 2001.
Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 26 April 2018

Korean leaders to meet at North-South border on Friday: BBC
Chinese geologists say N. Korea’s main nuclear test site has likely collapsed: WaPo
China air force intimidates Taiwan with military flights around island: Reuters
Conservative Supreme Court justices appear to back Trump’s travel ban: The Hill
French president expects Trump will withdraw from Iranian nuclear deal: BBC
Rising interest rates keep Wall Street on edge: CBS
Investors will focus on various inflation numbers in days ahead: Bloomberg
A closer look at the 10-year Treasury yield’s rise to 3%: Calafia Beach Pundit
T. Rowe Price’s assets under mgt top $1 trillion–a sign of active mgt growth: P&I
World trade volume slumped 0.4% in Feb, first monthly loss since Oct: CPB

Macro Briefing: 25 April 2018

Western allies press Trump to maintain nuclear deal with Iran: Reuters
US intelligence monitors Iranian cargo shipments into Syria: CNN
A trade war is a major risk for China’s debt-ridden economy: CNBC
Federal judge orders gov’t must accept new DACA immigration applications: WaPo
Unification of Koreas still unlikely as leaders prepare to meet: Reuters
US Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in April after March decline: CB
New home sales in US increased to 4-month high in March: MarketWatch
Richmond Fed Mfg Index turns negative for first time since 2016: Bond Buyer
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index surged in Feb, up 6.3% y-o-y: CNBC
Federal Housing Finance Agency: US house prices continued to rise in Feb: HW
Corp bonds with lowest investment-grade rating look vulnerable: Bloomberg
10-year Treasury yield reaches 3.0% for first time since 2014: CNN Money

Slower US GDP Growth Expected In Friday’s First-Quarter Report

The pace of US economic output is set to soften in the government’s “advance” GDP report for the first quarter that’s scheduled for release at the end of this week (Apr. 27), according to several estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The projection for Friday’s update puts the economy on track to post a slowdown in Q1 growth vs. the previous quarters for the third straight year.
Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 24 April 2018

Iran issues warning as French President Macron meets Trump: WaPo
Senate panel endorses Pompeo for Secretary of State: The Hill
Will 3% yield on 10-year Treasury reshape investing landscape? Bloomberg
Brent oil above $75 for first time since 2014: MarketWatch
US existing home sales up more than expected in March: AP
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activty Index: US growth moderated in March: Chicago Fed
Eurozone PMI: business activity continued to rise “solid pace in April: IHS Markit
Survey data points to “solid” private sector output in April: IHS Markit