We’ve seen this movie before, only to learn otherwise with subsequent updates. But maybe it’s the real deal this time. The daily change for Covid-19 fatalities in the US is showing renewed signs of trending lower, based on data through Apr. 12, according to numbers published this evening by Johns Hopkins. As always, it’ll take several days at the least before we can even begin to take the shift seriously. Meantime, there’s bad news to consider: the apex for the sum of cumulative fatalities is still nowhere on the immediate horizon. But if the downturn in the daily change persists, the fatalities may be close to flat-lining.
Let’s start with the good news: the number of deaths for Apr. 12 declined to an increase of 1,557—well below the previous day’s 1,877 gain and the lowest since Apr. 6. But as recent history reminds, it’s premature to read too much into one day’s change, although for the moment there’s a fresh sign that maybe, just maybe, the worst has passed.
The trend for cumulative deaths, however, still looks worrisome, at least for the near term. Alas, a strong upside bias remains intact.
Tracking the US deaths in log scale vs. a select group of other countries suggests that the US continues to rise at a relatively strong rate for cumulative fatalities.
Meantime, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci offered a bit of encouragement earlier today, advising that “cautious optimism” is warranted for thinking that parts of the US may reopen as soon as next month.