Today’s update on weekly jobless claims (scheduled for release at 8:30am eastern) is widely expected to post an increase after last week’s drop to just over a five-year low. The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast sees a rise to 361,000 new filings for unemployment benefits last week (seasonally adjusted) vs. the previously reported 343,000.
Here’s how the numbers stack up, followed by brief definitions of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator’s projections.
ARIMA: An autoregressive integrated moving average model that analyzes the historical record of the data series in R via the “forecast” package.
ES: An exponential smoothing model that analyzes the historical record of the data in R via the “forecast” package.