The Federal Reserve left its target interest rate steady yesterday, confirming widespread expectations for no change in monetary policy. The decision was likely driven, at least in part, by a desire to steer clear of even the appearance of influencing next week’s midterm elections. While that may be a politically savvy move, it could make the central bank’s job of taming inflation that much harder.
Will Robust Q3 GDP Growth Complicate the Inflation Outlook?
Tomorrow’s preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP is expected to show a strong acceleration in U.S. economic activity from the second quarter, underscoring the economy’s resilience despite elevated interest rates and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. While stronger growth is a positive signal for corporate earnings and labor market conditions, it could also complicate the inflation outlook.
Warsh’s Hawkish Rhetoric Meets an Inflation Reality Check
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady in tomorrow’s policy announcement, but a recent rebound in inflation has left markets unsettled about the possibility of further rate hikes in the months ahead.
Market Winners Stall as Oil Prices Revive Inflation Fears
Commodities and stocks continue to drive solid gains in global asset allocation strategies in 2026, based on a set of ETFs tracking the major asset classes through Friday’s close. Upside momentum among the leading performers has stalled in recent weeks, however, as inflation concerns and geopolitical risks weigh on investor expectations. Even so, the data currently in hand leave little doubt that risk assets remain the primary source of strength, providing a favorable backdrop for diversified portfolios.
Book Bits: 24 October 2026
● Hyperscale: The Ambition and Excess of Big Tech’s Data Empires
Paris Marx
Review via CNET
There is no stronger metaphor for the manifestation of Big Tech’s power than the increasing sprawl of data centers. Amazon, Microsoft and Google alone control 59% of hyperscale data center capacity. In his new book available now, Hyperscale: The Ambition and Excess of Big Tech’s Data Empires, Marx, host of the Tech Won’t Save Us podcast, highlights how global data center protests are one of many ways that communities are pushing back against Big Tech’s power over us…. Before, a large data center might require around 50 megawatts of power to keep everything running. Now, hyperscale data centers can require triple that amount of power. Newer ones, like Meta’s Louisiana data center, may require 4,500 megawatts (4.5 gigawatts) — staggering demand that officials say is four times more than all of the electricity used in New Orleans on its hottest day in 2025. It’s more than the two gigawatts the Hoover Dam produces.
Bond Market Tests the Inflation Narrative as Yields Tumble
U.S. Treasury yields dropped sharply on Thursday, marking the largest one-day decline in recent history and reigniting questions about whether rates have peaked. At the center of the debate over where the bond market goes from here is the tension between the outlook for inflation vs. growing concerns about economic growth and geopolitical risk.
Oil Signals Geopolitical Risk Is Back on the Radar
Oil prices are climbing again and are approaching the highs reached during the early stages of the Iran conflict. The latest advance reflects growing concerns about renewed conflict in the Middle East, fueled by reports that the U.S. and Israel may resume military action against Iran after the midterm elections. Regardless of the trigger, a breakout to new highs in oil would be an unwelcome development for financial markets at a time when inflation risks remain elevated.
Housing Is Weak, but Its Impact on the Business Cycle Is Muted
There was a time when economists argued that housing was not only a key component of the economy, but also the primary driver of the business cycle. That relationship appears far more tenuous these days, and for now that’s good news given the weakness in residential construction and home buying.
Energy Stocks Lead This Year, But Tech Still Drives the S&P 500
The US stock market is on track for a fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains, but the sector leading the performance race is not necessarily driving the market. Energy stocks have been the standout performers in 2026, soaring far ahead of every other sector, including technology. Yet tech remains the primary force behind the S&P 500’s advance because it carries a much larger weight than energy in the market-cap-weighted index.
GDP Nowcasts Point to Faster Growth as Inflation Risks Mount
For anyone expecting that slower US economic growth will help cool inflation in the near term, the latest nowcasts for next week’s third-quarter GDP report offer little support.