Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is playing a dangerous game. By tempting the bond market to effectively test his resolve, he’s putting his own credibility, and that of his agency, on the line. His strategy could ultimately draw in the Federal Reserve, which may soon be pressed to tighten monetary policy to counteract the blowback from a bond market that continues to push Treasury yields higher.
A Two-Story Market: AI Optimism and Iran Fear Power US Stocks
Energy and technology remain the dominant engines of performance for the US stock market this year. That’s another way of saying that the Iran war and AI are the primary factors lifting broad measures of American equities in 2026.
The Economy Appears to Be Heating Up. So Are the Headwinds
Pressures appear to be building for the US economy, but the warning signs look less severe when viewed through third‑quarter GDP estimates. The debate now turns on whether the current acceleration in economic activity signals continued resilience into Q4 and 2027, or instead marks a near‑term peak before several strengthening risk factors begin to take a toll.
Cheers to the Hands, Brains, and Engines Behind the Economy
Happy Labor Day!
Book Bits: 5 September 2026
● Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life
David Booth
Review via CBS News
Index investing pioneer David Booth has a simple message for people navigating volatile financial markets: Stay calm and keep investing.
Booth, a billionaire several times over whose Dimensional Fund Advisors manages $1 trillion, expands on that advice in a new book, “Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life.” Part memoir and part investment guide, the book explains why investors should strive to accept the uncertainty inherent in the market rather than trying to outsmart it.
Waller Urges Patience as Bond Yields Signal Tightening Ahead
Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller says there’s still a case for staying patient before deciding whether it’s time to raise interest rates. The open question is whether the bond market will endorse that caution — or start pricing in a faster pivot.
Value and Small Caps Stage a Comeback. Will It Last This Time?
How’s that three-factor model working out for ’ya?
The famous Fama-French model from the early 1990s that inspired investors to allocate a portion of their equity strategy to so‑called value and small‑cap stocks has had a rough ride in recent years. But the tide may finally be turning—or so one can argue based on year‑to‑date performances. The question is whether the recoveries are another short-run burst of strength that runs out of road, a scenario that’s played out several times in recent years.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 September 2026
The total return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to tick higher in August for the long run outlook. Despite the increase in the GMI forecast in recent months, today’s estimate remains well below the index’s trailing 10‑year return.
Major Asset Classes | August 2026 | Performance Review
The majority of the major asset classes rose in August, led by commodities for a second straight month, based on a set of ETF proxies. Only property shares in the US and abroad lost ground.
A Tale of Two Yield Curves: Treasury Signals Clash on the Outlook
Developing a clear read on the economic outlook is challenging these days, a reality underscored by the widening split between two of the market’s most closely watched yield curves.