Economic output for the first quarter is expected to partially recover from the stall‑speed pace of Q4, but the threat of an energy shock is looming as the war in Iran continues.
Book Bits: 14 March 2026
● The Alibi of Capital: How We Broke the Earth to Steal the Future on the Promise of a Better Tomorrow
Timothy Mitchell
Review via Publishers Weekly
Political theorist Mitchell (Carbon Democracy) offers a paradigm-shifting critique of the logic that underlies the modern economy. Today is “an age in which extraordinary wealth seems to arrive from unfathomable sources,” Mitchell writes, noting that even critics of the current system seem unable to reckon with the vast and concentrated wealth “conjured… out of thin air” by speculative financial markets. To fully reckon with this “mode of acquiring unearned wealth” that is “the defining feature of our contemporary form of life,” Mitchell argues that one must understand what capital actually is. Capital, he asserts, is foremost “a practical means of consuming the future.”
US 10‑Year Treasury Yield Near ‘Fair Value’ at Outset of Iran War
The 10-year Treasury yield was close to its “fair value” estimate in February, based on the average of three models. Before the start of the war in Iran on Feb. 28, the fading market premium in recent months was expected to continue, and perhaps slide to a discount in the near future. The outlook has been upended due to the ongoing military conflict, which is sending shock waves through the world economy.
Commodities Lead Major Asset Classes By Wide Margin This Year
The war in Iran has roiled the outlook for financial markets and the global economy, but commodities are clearly benefiting from the turmoil as prices rise for energy and other raw materials.
The War May End Soon, But the Fed’s Battle Is Only Beginning
Before the attack started on Feb. 28, lingering concerns about inflation had kept the Fed wary of extending last year’s interest rate cuts. Although several measures of pricing pressure had stabilized at lower levels relative to recent history, Fed officials expressed caution about declaring victory in fully taming the price spike that peaked at 9.0% year over year for the Consumer Price Index in June 2022.
Most Equity Risk Factors Still Posting Gains For 2026
The war in Iran is increasingly weighing on global financial markets and economic activity. Reflecting the rising macro risk, the major U.S. equity benchmarks have slipped into negative territory for the year. But a closer look at stocks shows that most equity risk factors continue to enjoy positive returns in 2026, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Mar. 9).
Tehran Defies US as Conflict Escalates and Markets Reel
Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father Ali Khamenei as the country’s supreme leader. The choice sends a signal that the country’s hardliners are still in control of the country and will remain defiant against President Trump’s demand for “unconditional surrender.” With neither side blinking, a quick end to the war, now in its tenth day, still appears elusive.
Book Bits: 7 March 2026
● The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict, and Warnings from History
Odd Arne Westad
Interview with author via Keen on America podcast
“If we let things continue in the direction that they are taking now, I think it is more likely than not that we will end up in some kind of Great Power war within the foreseeable future.” — Arne Westad
This conversation was recorded before the invasion of Iran, which makes what you are about to hear even more chilling. In new book, The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict, and Warnings from History, Yale historian Arne Westad warns that the structural parallels between our multipolar 2020s and the world before the First World War are too striking to ignore—and he names the Middle East as one of the flashpoints that could spark a much broader conflagration.
Early Impact of Iran War Is Low, But Economic Risks Are Rising
The economic fallout from the war in Iran has been limited for the US so far. But as the conflict continues, the effects will become increasingly clear.
Energy Stocks Are Soaring, Too
The war in Iran has upended expectations about winners and losers in the US stock market, redirecting equity investment flows into energy, materials, and industrials. How long this leadership rotation lasts will likely be determined by the course and duration of the war. Meantime, old‑economy stocks are back in vogue.