Macro Briefing | 14 November 2019

First day of public impeachment hearing focuses on Ukraine: Reuters
US-China trade talks falter over farm products: WSJ
Fed’s Powell sees steady rates if economy remains on current path: CNBC
China’s economic growth continues to slow, new data shows: SCMP
Germany avoids a recession in Q3, just barely: CNBC
Japan’s economy barely grew in Q3: NY Times
Google plans to enter banking industry by offering checking accounts: The Verge
US core consumer inflation’s 1-year trend ticked down to +2.3% in October:

Macro Briefing | 13 November 2019

Trump: more tariffs are coming without a China trade deal: Bloomberg
Trump’s top economic adviser hints at middle-class tax cut: CNBC
A viewer’s guide to the start of today’s public impeachment hearings: BBC
Will Supreme Court kill the DACA immigration program? Reuters
The US economy’s influence on voting preferences is fading: WSJ
Ukraine’s president is open to talks with Russia: NY Times
US small business owners remained optimistic in October: NFIB

US Economic Slowdown Expected To Continue In Q4

Preliminary estimates of US economic activity for the fourth quarter are pointing to another downshift in growth, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. It’s still early in Q4 and so the projection should be viewed cautiously. But for now, it’s fair to say that the case appears weak for expecting output to stabilize, much less rebound.

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Macro Briefing | 12 November 2019

Trump may take a pass on rolling out new tariffs on auto imports: NY Times
US West Coast imports tumbled in October amid US-China trade war: WSJ
What will Trump say in speech today at the Economic Club of New York? Reuters
The world’s largest trade deal is set for signing in 2020–without the US: CNBC
Google is collecting a massive health database on US citizens: WSJ
German investors’ outlook improves in November: Reuters
The world’s wealthiest individuals are expecting a turbulent 2020: Bloomberg
Trump’s record on equity market returns vs previous presidents: Bloomberg

Macro Briefing | 11 November 2019

Boliva’s president, citing coup, resigns after disputed election: Reuters
Spain’s socialists hold on to power as far-right makes big gains in election: NHK 
The Treasury yield curve steepens. Is that a risk-on signal? WSJ
UK growth slows to 1% year on year rate in Q3, slowest in nearly a decade: BBC
US small-business owners’ optimism continues to edge up in 2019: Gallup
US consumer sentiment improved slightly in November: MW
US stock market volatility (VIX Index) slipped to 3-month low on Friday:

Book Bits | 9 November 2019

How Money Became Dangerous: The Inside Story of Our Turbulent Relationship with Modern Finance
By Christopher Varelas and Dan Stone
Review via Kirkus Review
Varelas charts the evolution—or, more, accurately, devolution—of the modern financial sector, noting that when banking firms went public there was no longer a personal stake in the game but instead only “employees looking to maximize annual compensation” without sufficient concern for risk, one of what Walt Disney called “the hard facts that have created America.” Other negatives in the system, writes the author, are time-sensitive algorithms whose speed divorces prices from “reality” and a corporate culture that turns the financial-sector worker into “merely a cog in a global delivery mechanism.” The author’s exercise in forensic accounting as he examines a case of government bankruptcy is particularly fascinating.

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What’s The Best Methodology For Measuring Drawdown Risk?

The possibilities for quantifying risk in portfolio analytics seems to be limited only by the imagination of researchers. Indeed, you can find dictionaries that wade through an ever-lengthening list of indicators. But any short list of robust metrics surely deserves to include drawdown, which offers a powerful combination of relevance and simplicity. A new research paper reminds, however, that drawdown comes in several flavors and so investors need to think carefully when deploying this metric in the quest to identify genuinely skillful portfolio results.

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