Financial “wisdom” is said to be cyclical rather than cumulative, but that’s unfair. At least in the dominion of portfolio management and design, academics and money managers have made great strides in decoding Mr. Market’s cryptic signals over the past half century. The challenge, having led the proverbial horse to water, is making him drink.
Macro Briefing: 29 November 2023
* Fed official suggests central bank is done with rate hikes
* Global economy will slow in 2024, OECD predicts
* US car dealers say consumer demand for electric vehicles is weak
* Amazon announces new AI chatbot for businesses
* US home prices rise to a new record high in September
* US consumer confidence rebounds in November after 3 monthly declines
* US 10-year Treasury yield falls to two-month low on Tuesday:
US Q4 GDP Nowcast Still Points To Moderate Growth
The recession that was widely predicted when the year began has only been postponed, some forecasters warn. The US is likely to contract at some point in the new year, runs the updated outlook. Maybe, but 2023 remains on track to exit this year in a growth mode, according to the latest nowcasts.
Macro Briefing: 28 November 2023
* Will emerging markets rally in 2024 if interest rates peak?
* US liquidity is rebounding, providing support for stock market
* US gasoline prices fall for 60 straight days
* Sticky US core inflation will keep rates high, economists predict
* US median price for new houses sold fell 17.6% in Oct–deepest slide on record:
Will US Stocks Lead Again In 2024? Big-Tech Has The Answer
The US stock market remains on track to be the performance leader in 2023 for the major asset classes – by a wide margin. The key reason: Big-tech shares are running hot. Take out these companies from the mix and US equities’ year-to-date results fade to a mediocre performance in line with the return on money-market funds.
Macro Briefing: 27 November 2023
* Investors see rising odds of rate cut within four months
* Black Friday spending rises to record $9.8 billion, up 7.5% vs. last year
* Is the surge in money-market fund balances a bullish signal for markets?
* Another study reaffirms that buy-and-hold investing is tough to beat
* Are economists flying blind due to sliding response rates to official surveys?
* US economic activity remains weak in November via PMI survey data:
The Holiday Starts… Now
It’s only Tuesday on the calendar, but the holiday week has already started at The Capital Spectator’s world headquarters. But we shall return. Come Monday, Nov. 27, the lights will once again burn bright. Meanwhile… Happy Thanksgiving!
Rally In US Stocks Inspires Bullish Outlook
Animal spirits are reviving after US shares rallied for a third straight week, fueled by renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are done and cuts are near.
Macro Briefing: 20 November 2023
* Microsoft hires Sam Altman, ousted CEO of OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT
* Radical libertarian populist Javier Milei elected president of Argentina
* Positive earnings surprises have fueled stock market rally, says strategist
* Strong labor market is why US avoids recession after rate hikes
* Foreign demand for US Treasuries slides as supply rises
* US housing starts rise for second month in October
* OPEC+ considers further oil production cuts as price sags:
Book Bits: 18 November 2023
● Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative
Jennifer Burns
Review via The New Republic
Jennifer Burns’s biography of the economist Milton Friedman arrives at a moment when his legacy is increasingly questioned. For no one is more closely linked with neoliberalism than Friedman, who preached the virtues of markets in popular books, on public television, and from his position at the University of Chicago. One of Friedman’s major accomplishments, as Burns describes it, is to have crafted the “basic intellectual consensus about free markets and limited government that powered twentieth-century American conservatism.” For his admirers, Friedman was a farsighted prophet of market economics, a first-rate academic who saw that the world needed more capitalism, not less, to deliver global prosperity. For others, he represents the market fundamentalism that has allowed the wealthy to capture too great a share of the gains of global growth in the neoliberal era, and led to the financial crisis of 2008.