David Roediger
Summary via publisher (Haymarket Books)
The Sinking Middle Class challenges the “save the middle class” rhetoric that dominates our political imagination. The slogan misleads us regarding class, nation, and race. Talk of middle class salvation reinforces myths holding that the US is a providentially middle class nation. Implicitly white, the middle class becomes viewed as unheard amidst supposed concerns for racial justice and for the poor. Roediger shows how little the US has been a middle class nation. The term seldom appeared in US writing before 1900. Many white Americans were self-employed, but this social experience separated them from the contemporary middle class of today, overwhelmingly employed and surveilled. Today’s highly unequal US hardly qualifies as sustaining the middle class.
Recession Risk Rises But US Still Expected To Grow In Q2
Headwinds for US growth continue to strengthen, but next month’s second-quarter report of GDP is still on track to post a gain, based on the median estimate from a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitaSpectator.com. The question is whether the data deteriorates further between now and the July 28 Q2 release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis? Recent releases suggest that’s strong, or at least rising possibility.
Macro Briefing: 24 June 2022
* EU leaders offer Ukraine and Moldova candidate member status
* Recession risks for US and Europe have picked up sharply, warn economists
* China and India become Russia’s financiers to evade sanctions
* Copper, an economic bellwether, falls to 16-month low
* KC Fed Mfg Index shows further growth slowdown in June
* A $100 million crypto hack reported by Horizon, a so-called blockchain bridge
* US Energy Secretary asks oil firms to combat high gasoline prices
* US economic growth slows sharply in June via PMI survey data:
Peak Inflation Watch: 23 June 2022
The question of when inflation will peak consumes financial and commodity markets, and with good reason. When pricing pressure finally ebbs, the pressure on rate hikes and the headwinds for the economy will ease, if only on the margins. But every thousand-mile journey has to start somewhere.
Macro Briefing: 23 June 2022
* Powell tells Congress Fed is “strongly committed” to fighting inflation
* Powell returns to Capitol Hill today for testimony as rates stay in focus
* European leaders set to accept Ukraine as candidate to join EU
* Eurozone growth slows to 16-month low in June as demand weakens
* Germany lifts level of alarm over Russia gas disruption
* UK growth unchanged at 15-month low in June via PMI survey data
* US 10-year Treasury yield eases to 3.16%, lowest in nearly two weeks:
Macro Briefing: 22 June 2022
* Tensions rising between Moscow and NATO over Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave
* Japan on high alert amid activity by Chinese and Russian warships near its coast
* IEA warns Europe to prepare for total shutdown of Russian gas exports
* Russia earns more oil revenue than before war due to China and India
* Biden expected to call for 3-month suspension of gas tax
* Fed expected to lift rates by 3/4 percentage point again in July
* UK inflation ticks up to new 40-year high: +9.1% annual pace in May
* Existing home sales in US fell for fourth straight month in May
* US growth slowed in May via Chicago Fed business-cycle index:
Monitoring Fed Policy Expectations With The 2-Year Treasury Yield
Markets-based forecasts aren’t flawless, but for some projects in finance these estimates are the baseline estimates that are often tough to beat. An example is monitoring the outlook for trends and changes in Fed monetary policy. On that front, you could do a lot worse than keeping a close eye on the 2-year Treasury yield.
Macro Briefing: 21 June 2022
* European Central Bank plans two rate hikes this summer
* Goldman Sachs raises US recession-risk probability to 30% for 2023
* China’s economy continues to face downside risks
* Fed’s rate hikes are starting to slow borrowing and spending
* Israel’s gov’t collapses, new elections set
* New US ban on imports from the China’s Xinjiang region has started
* German 10-year yield rebounds to highest since 2014:
All The Major Asset Classes Lost Ground Last Week
Markets suffered a clean sweep of losses last week. It’s a rare event, but it happens, as the trading week through Friday, June 17 reminds in the wake of all the major slices of global markets posting simultaneous declines, based on a set of ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 20 June 2022
* Ukraine war could last years, says NATO’s secretary-general
* France’s newly-elected President Macron loses absolute majority in parliament
* EPA’s power over greenhouse gases at stake in upcoming Supreme Court ruling
* Emerging markets face rising pressure from higher interest rates and inflation
* Apple workers in Maryland vote to unionize
* Bitcoin rebounds after a sharp slide below $18,000 over the weekend
* US Treasury real yields rebound to positive terrain but still below 2018 peak:
