After months of higher Treasury yields, the possibility that rates have peaked is a topical discussion, fueled by easing rates in recent days. Although there are still three trading days to go this week, the widely followed 2- and 10-year Treasury yields look set to post their first run of three-weekly declines this year.
Macro Briefing: 25 May 2022
* Recession appears to be overtaking inflation as main concern for investors
* China seeks policing/security deal with 10 Pacific island countries
* China economic outlook weakens as zero-Covid policy takes a toll
* ‘Constant waves’ of Covid expected, predicts Pfizer’s chief executive
* US Treasury Dept. policy change may trigger historic Russian default
* Is tech lifting US productivity? The debate (and lack of clear evidence) persist
* New home sales in US fell for a fourth straight month in April
* US growth slows in May more than expected via PMI survey data:
Peak Inflation Watch — Oil Edition: 24 May 2022
There are many factors that drive consumer price inflation, but at the headline level the oil factor is often the first among equals. By that standard, the recent pullback in the price of crude hints at the possibility that we’ve seen the summit for inflationary pressure at the headline level.
Macro Briefing: 24 May 2022
* US-China relations strained by Biden’s comments on defending Taiwan
* US policy for trade policy with China remains unclear
* European Union embargo on Russian oil imports expected ‘within days’
* Eurozone growth is ‘robust’ in May via PMI Composite Index survey data
* ECB chief says central bank in no rush to tighten monetary policy
* The Great Resignation set to roll on, according to a new global survey
* Is Spain the answer to Europe’s Russian energy problem?
* UK private sector growth eases to slowest pace since winter 2021
* US growth remained robust in April via Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index:
Most Of The Major Asset Classes Rebounded Last Week
After weeks of widespread losses, markets around the world were mostly higher for the trading week through Friday, May 20, based on a set of ETFs. The main exceptions: stocks and real estate investment trusts in the US, which posted substantial weekly declines.
Macro Briefing: 23 May 2022
* Biden says US would intervene militarily if China attacks Taiwan, but…
* White House walks backs Biden’s comments on US defense of Taiwan
* US announces major economic deal for Asia to counter China
* Why is Turkey blocking Finland and Sweden’s bid to join NATO?
* Shadow banks are a growing threat to global economy
* US economy in ‘transition’, says White House economic adviser
* Treasury yields stabilize as demand for bonds revives amid economic concerns
* Is the dot-com crash of the early 2000s repeating?
* The age of borderless data is fading
* US Q2 GDP still on track for rebound via Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate:
Book Bits: 21 May 2022
Vito Tanzi
Summary via publisher (Cambridge U. Press)
This book revisits a distinction introduced in 1921 by economists Frank Knight and John Maynard Keynes: that between statistically predictable future events (‘risks’) and statistically unpredictable, uncertain events (‘uncertainties’). Governments have generally ignored the latter, perceiving phenomena such as pandemics, natural disasters and climate change as uncontrollable Acts of God. As a result, there has been little if any preparation for future catastrophes. Our modern society is more interconnected and more globalized than ever. Dealing with uncertain future events requires a stronger and more globally coordinated government response. This book suggests a larger, more global government role in dealing with these disasters and keeping economic inequalities low.
US Recession Risk May Be Rising, But Growth Still Prevails
How quickly and deeply will economic growth slow? That’s the critical question, but the future being the future the answer is unclear. What we do know is that headwinds are building. We also know that growth has probably rebounded from the first quarter’s contraction, based on GDP. Beyond these basic facts, the outlook turns murky.
Macro Briefing: 20 May 2022
* Biden begins Asia trip in South Korea, focusing on tech and global issues
* Canada announces ban on China’s Huawei and ZTE from its 5G networks
* US housing market ‘vulnerable’ to price correction, says ING economist
* China on path of rate cuts after cutting mortgage rate to revive economy
* Inflation taking a toll on retail sector as more Fed rate hikes approach
* Inflation in Japan, the land of deflation, hits 7-year high in April
* US existing home sales fell for a third straight month in April
* Philly Fed Mfg Index indicates sharp slowdown in growth in May
* US jobless claims rise to highest level since January:
Monitoring Investment Regime Trends With ETF Pairs
Markets move in waves and it’s valuable to keep an eye on the big-picture ebbs and flows for context with portfolio rebalancing, adjusting risk exposure and much more. There are several ways to track these broad moves. One of the more useful methodologies is watching the ratio of prices for a given investment theme.