The market premium for the U.S. 10‑year Treasury continued rising in July, increasing to the highest level in a year. A key catalyst: inflation uncertainty related to the simmering Iran conflict and ambiguity about the Federal Reserve’s plans for monetary policy.
Disinflation Gains Traction, but the Bond Market Isn’t Buying It
Consumer inflation eased in July, providing the Federal Reserve with a fresh round of data to stay patient on the decision of whether to raise interest rates. The bond market remains skeptical, but yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for last month, along with readings from alternative CPI benchmarks, suggests that pricing pressure is, at worst, stabilizing if not easing. Looking ahead to the next update, a pair of CPI nowcasts for August point to ongoing disinflation this month.
Copper’s Rise Continues As Gold Tries to Claw Back Lost Ground
After correcting through much of the Iran conflict to date, precious metals are starting to revive based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Aug. 11). Meanwhile, copper’s resilience during the war has endured as the metal continues to set new highs.
Foreign Stocks Lose Their Edge as US Momentum Roars Back
Foreign equities continue to outperform U.S. stocks this year, but there are signs that international leadership is faltering, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Aug. 10).
Will the Bond Market Verify the Stock Market’s Revived Optimism?
Last week’s stock market surge sends a message that all is well, but that’s only half a loaf until the bond market confirms the recovery in expectations.
Book Bits: 8 August 2026
● United States of Oligarchy: How America’s Wealthiest Ally with Dictators, Weaken the U.S., and Destroy Democracy
Casey Michel
Summary via publisher (Macmillan)
For years, a small group of billionaires has amassed increasing power, steering American politics for their own benefit. Many of these figures are familiar. There’s Elon Musk, who has used his wealth to help place Donald Trump back in the White House. There’s Mark Zuckerberg, who has used his resources to transform America into his own digital playground. There’s Jared Kushner, who has used family connections to gain more political power than he ever dreamed of. There is only one word to describe such extreme levels of wealth, avarice, and political control: Oligarchy.
Early Q3 GDP Nowcasts Point to a Pickup in Economic Growth
Initial estimates for third-quarter GDP point to a rebound in growth following the softer-than-expected gain in Q2, based on the median of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator.
Trump’s Calls to Warsh Add Political Crosscurrent to Fed’s Path
The Federal Reserve is steering through a thicket of macro crosscurrents, and the challenge is sharpening amid a new report that President Trump has been calling Chair Kevin Warsh since he took the helm at the central bank in May.
Tech Roars Back as Energy Falters in a Sudden Market Power Shift
Energy stocks are still the year’s top-performing sector, but yesterday’s tech-led surge in equities — and energy’s stumble — suggest another leadership change may be brewing.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 August 2026
The expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to edge higher in July, extending the recent run of upward revisions. Even so, the long‑term outlook remains well below its trailing 10‑year performance, though the gap has narrowed.