Macro Briefing: 2 June 2023

* Senate passes debt ceiling bill, sending legislation to Biden to avert default
* Global manufacturing output rises in May but new orders continue to fall
* Arizona limits residential construction around Phoenix due to water shortage
* US manufacturing sector continues to contract in May via ISM Mfg Index
* Jobless claims edge up but remain relatively low
* Construction spending in US for April rises well above expections
* US companies hire more workers than expected in May via ADP estimate:

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 1 June 2023

* House approves bill to lift debt-ceiling limit, easing default threat
* Senate under pressure to quickly pass debt-ceiling bill
* Eurozone inflation falls more than forecast in May, dropping to 6.1%
* China mfg output growth rises to 11-month high in May via PMI survey
* Eurozone manufacturing recession deepens to six-month low in May
* Fed Beige Book highlights cooling economy
* US births fell slightly in 2022 vs. 2021
* Chicago PMI tumbles in May, reflecting deeper pace of mfg contraction
* US job openings unexpectedly rose in April:

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 31 May 2023

* House set to vote on debt-ceiling deal after it clears key committee
* China’s manufacturing sector contracts for second month in May via survey data
* Index funds have become tech-heavy growth funds
* Texas, a leader in wind energy, is turning against its green-energy industry
* Orders continue to slide for Texas manufacturing sector in May
* US home prices rise in March after falling for seven months
* US consumer confidence eases to 6-month low in May:

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 30 May 2023

* Biden and McCarthy look for votes to pass debt-ceiling bill
* Debt-ceiling deal, if passed, will be a new headwind for US economy
* Moscow attacked by drones as Russia bombs Ukraine capital for third day
* Nato troops injured in clashes with Serbs in Kosovo
* Biden and newly re-elected Turkish President talk F-16s, Sweden’s NATO bid
* N. Korea says it will launch satellites for real-time monitoring of US and allies
* China’s fading recovery highlights long-building economic risks
* Markets are downgrading expectations that a pause in rate hikes is near
* Small-cap stocks appear to be pricing in a recession:

Continue reading

Book Bits: 27 May 2023

We Need to Talk About Inflation: 14 Urgent Lessons from the Last 2,000 Years
Stephen D. King
Review via Financial Times
Economic history is rarely taught in universities these days. This is a pity, since it is a better guide to policymaking than Nobel Prize winning theses in economic theory. As a result, every two generations or so we are destined to repeat serious policy mistakes. In Britain the Truss government failed to study the Barber Boom of 1972-73 and arguably the world’s central banks too have failed to learn from the oil price shocks of 1973 and 1980.
Stephen D King’s highly readable and informative book provides a welcome antidote… King’s canter through 2,000 years of inflationary history — from Emperor Diocletian’s debasement of the coinage through to the Federal Reserve’s decision in 2021 to allow inflation to run at above the 2 per cent “central target” — is instructive. Money matters.

Continue reading