Recession Risk Rises But US Still Expected To Grow In Q2

Headwinds for US growth continue to strengthen, but next month’s second-quarter report of GDP is still on track to post a gain, based on the median estimate from a set of nowcasts compiled by The question is whether the data deteriorates further between now and the July 28 Q2 release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis? Recent releases suggest that’s strong, or at least rising possibility.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 24 June 2022

* EU leaders offer Ukraine and Moldova candidate member status
* Recession risks for US and Europe have picked up sharply, warn economists
* China and India become Russia’s financiers to evade sanctions
* Copper, an economic bellwether, falls to 16-month low
* KC Fed Mfg Index shows further growth slowdown in June
* A $100 million crypto hack reported by Horizon, a so-called blockchain bridge
* US Energy Secretary asks oil firms to combat high gasoline prices
* US economic growth slows sharply in June via PMI survey data:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell asks a critical inflation/disinflation question. It’s going to take time for the answer. “The disinflationary forces of the last quarter-century have been replaced, at least temporarily, by a whole different set of forces,” he says in yesterday’s House testimony. “The real question is: How long will this new set of forces be sustained? We can’t know that. But in the meantime, our job is to find maximum employment and price stability in this new economy.”

Russia’s slow squeeze on Europe’s gas supplies conitinues. “I don’t think they are going to cut the gas overnight, especially as we are going into the summer and during the summer the gas is not a strategic weapon. But the winter could be difficult and we have to be prepared in Europe,” says Josep Borrel, EU’s top diplomat. “I don’t think they are going to cut the gas overnight, especially as we are going into the summer and during the summer the gas is not a strategic weapon. But the winter could be difficult and we have to be prepared in Europe.”

Macro Briefing: 23 June 2022

* Powell tells Congress Fed is “strongly committed” to fighting inflation
* Powell returns to Capitol Hill today for testimony as rates stay in focus
* European leaders set to accept Ukraine as candidate to join EU
* Eurozone growth slows to 16-month low in June as demand weakens
* Germany lifts level of alarm over Russia gas disruption
* UK growth unchanged at 15-month low in June via PMI survey data
* US 10-year Treasury yield eases to 3.16%, lowest in nearly two weeks:

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 22 June 2022

* Tensions rising between Moscow and NATO over Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave
* Japan on high alert amid activity by Chinese and Russian warships near its coast
* IEA warns Europe to prepare for total shutdown of Russian gas exports
* Russia earns more oil revenue than before war due to China and India
* Biden expected to call for 3-month suspension of gas tax
* Fed expected to lift rates by 3/4 percentage point again in July
* UK inflation ticks up to new 40-year high: +9.1% annual pace in May
* Existing home sales in US fell for fourth straight month in May
* US growth slowed in May via Chicago Fed business-cycle index:

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 21 June 2022

* European Central Bank plans two rate hikes this summer
* Goldman Sachs raises US recession-risk probability to 30% for 2023
* China’s economy continues to face downside risks
* Fed’s rate hikes are starting to slow borrowing and spending
* Israel’s gov’t collapses, new elections set
* New US ban on imports from the China’s Xinjiang region has started
* German 10-year yield rebounds to highest since 2014:

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 20 June 2022

* Ukraine war could last years, says NATO’s secretary-general
* France’s newly-elected President Macron loses absolute majority in parliament
* EPA’s power over greenhouse gases at stake in upcoming Supreme Court ruling
* Emerging markets face rising pressure from higher interest rates and inflation
* Apple workers in Maryland vote to unionize
* Bitcoin rebounds after a sharp slide below $18,000 over the weekend
* US Treasury real yields rebound to positive terrain but still below 2018 peak:

Continue reading

Book Bits: 18 June 2022

Money, Magic, and How to Dismantle a Financial Bomb: Quantum Economics for the Real World
David Orrell
Review via Irish Tech News
David Orrell argues that the emerging discipline of quantum economics, of which he is at the forefront, is the key to shattering the illusions that prevent us from understanding money’s true nature. In this colourful tour of the history, philosophy and mathematics of money, Orrell demonstrates how everything makes much more sense when we replace our classical economic models with ones based on quantum probability – and reveals the explosive reality of what is left once the illusions are stripped away.

Continue reading