Macro Briefing: 30 January 2023

* Israel executes drone strike targeting defense compound in Iran
* German economy unexpectedly contracts in Q4
* Will wages or low unemployment drive Fed’s inflation-taming policy?
* Japan and Netherlands join US to limit chip tech exports to China
* Fed’s preferred inflation gauge eased again in December
* Pending home sales in US rose in December for first time since May
* US consumer spending fell for second month in December:

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Book Bits: 28 January 2023

The Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America
Philip Bump
Review via The Washington Post
If you’re looking for the highly detailed, data-driven, definitive story of how baby boomers changed America and a little forecasting of what might come next, Philip Bump’s “The Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America” is it. Generational analyses can often be a bit pat and reductive, with cherry-picked numbers leveraged to support a too-tidy narrative (wealthy and venal boomers screwing the rest of us; avocado-toast-eating millennial snowflakes woke-ing themselves broke). Bump, a national columnist for The Washington Post, offers the opposite: a deep and complicated interrogation of his subject, often challenging his own assumptions, with detailed forecasts of what could lie ahead — all illustrated with charts and visuals to drive a huge amount of data home.

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Macro Briefing: 27 January 2023

* US jobless claims fall, highlighting tight labor market conditions
* US durable goods orders rose in December, fueled by aircraft orders
* Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity (3mo avg) falls in December; new economic warning
* Money supply data is back in focus after inflation roller coaster
* Big oil firms expected to report record annual profits
* 10yr US Treasury yield rises above 3.5% after better-than-expected GDP report
* US economy rose 2.9% in fourth quarter, beating expectations:

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Macro Briefing: 26 January 2023

* Russia launches new attacks on Ukraine, which lauds West’s plan to send tanks
* Hiring surge by small firms complicates Fed’s plans to cool inflation
* Sen. Manchin seeks delay in new tax credits for electric vehicles
* Will a gain in today’s Q4 GDP report minimize recession risk?
* Consumer prices remain high despite softer inflation data
* Investors eye layoffs at investment banks as recession indicator
* Does Google antitrust investigation threaten its dominance in search business?
* Smartphone shipments plunge in Q4, largest decline on record
* US housing demand showing signs of rebounding, advises Redfin:

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Macro Briefing: 25 January 2023

* US and Germany set to announce sending tanks to Ukraine
* Treasury takes another “extraordinary” step to buy time in debt-ceiling impasse
* Senators consider Social Security reforms as GOP House members weigh cuts
* A warning for the labor market: companies cutting temporary workers
* Deciding if recession is high is unusually tricky this time
* Climate change may trigger new era of trade wars
* Justice Dept. sues Google, claiming it dominates digital advertising
* US economic contraction continues in January via PMI survey data:

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