Macro Briefing: 18 September 2020

Congress focuses on bill to avoid a government shutdown: WSJ
Judge blocks ‘politically motivated’ changes to US Postal Service: Reuters
China responds to US envoy’s visit to Taiwan with military drills: BBC
US economic confidence rebounds but still far below pre-pandemic level: Gallup
US housing starts fell in August–first monthly setback since April: NMN
Philly Fed Mfg Index: expansion continues in September but at slower pace: MW
US jobless claims fall more than expected, dropping to new pandemic low: CNBC

Macro Briefing: 17 September 2020

Hurricane Sally leaves 550,000 without power on US Gulf Coast: BBC
Federal Reserve expects to keep rates near zero for years: CNBC
CDC chief: coronavirus vaccine may not be ready until mid-2021: WSJ
Are weekly jobless claims figures reliable? NYT
Snowflake stock more than doubles — largest software IPO in history: CNBC
Homebuilder sentiment increases to record high in September: CNBC
US retail spending continued rising in August: NYT

The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 16 September 2020

Lower For Longer: If it wasn’t already clear, the Federal Reserve has no plans to raise interest rates any time soon. Noting that inflation continues to run “persistently below” its 2% target and the labor market remains well below its “maximum” mandate for full employment, the central bank announced that it “expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved.”

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Macro Briefing: 16 September 2020

Hurricane Sally remains a threat to US Gulf Coast states: CNN
Israel signs pact with two Gulf Arab states at White House: AP
US retail sales growth expected to slow in today’s August report: WSJ
Fed economic forecasts expected to edge up in today’s policy meeting: Reuters
OECD projects global GDP on track for “unprecedented” decline in 2020: CNBC
UK inflation falls to a five-year low: CNN
US import-price inflation increased more than expected in August: CNBC
NY Fed Mfg Index: growth picks up in September in bank’s region: MW
US industrial output growth continued to slow in August: Reuters

Treasury Market Yawns At Fed’s New Inflation Policy

When a central bank announces a formal policy change to lift inflation it’s reasonable to expect that the government bond market would notice. But so far there are few signs that US Treasuries are reacting to last month’s roll out of the Fed’s average inflation targeting (AIT) policy, which is designed to “moderately overshoot” the 2% target for “some time,” the bank’s chair, Jerome Powell, explained last month.

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Macro Briefing: 15 September 2020

Hurricane Sally begins lashing Gulf Coast: Reuters
Historic Arab-Israel diplomatic deals set for signing ceremony today: AP
No relief in site from wildfires burning across US West: AP
Minimal guidance expected from Fed on new policy for setting rates: BBG
25 years of global progress on health and economics reversed this year: Politico
Researchers find no evidence of a small-cap risk premium: II
China’s consumer and industrial data show rebound continued in August: CNBC
German investor sentiment rises in September, beating expectations: Reuters
Consumer inflation expectations tick up to 3.0% for 1-year horizon: NYF
US economy’s full recovery will take additional 6 months without stimulus: BBG
Real Treasury yields stay negative for more than five months: