Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 March 2024

The long-term return return estimate for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged up in February, rising from January’s estimate — the first increase in three months. Today’s revised forecast (based on three models defined below) points to a 6.8% annualized return for the unmanaged benchmark, which holds all the major asset classes (except cash) based on market weights via a set of ETF proxies.

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Macro Briefing: 4 March 2024

* New concerns for regional banks after NY Community Bancorp rating cut to junk
* Rising tide of new laws reshape how Big Tech operates around the world
* Japan’s stock market rally persists: Nikkei 225 index tops 40,000 for first time
* Several OPEC+ countries extend voluntary oil-supply cuts
* US economic strength inspires some to argue no rates cuts are likely in 2024
* ISM manufacturing index in February shows sector contraction continues:

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Book Bits: 2 March 2024

Burn Book: A Tech Love Story
Kara Swisher
Review via AP
Technology is so pervasive and invasive that it’s polarizing people, producing feelings of love and loathing for its devices, online services and the would-be visionaries behind them, according to a longtime Silicon Valley reporter.
Kara Swisher unwraps how we got to this point in her incendiary memoir… Swisher skewers many of the once-idealistic tech moguls who, when she met them as entrepreneurs decades ago, promised to change the world for the better but often chose a path of destructive disruption instead. And along the way, they amassed staggering fortunes that have disconnected them from reality.

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Macro Briefing: 1 March 2024

* Immigration is a key reason for US economic recovery from the pandemic
* China’s factory activity contracts for fifth straight month in February
* India is ‘easily’ the fastest growing economy in the world: IMF executive
* US jobless claims rose last week but remain historically low
* US pending home sales in January fall the most since August
* US inflation picked up as real consumer spending slowed in January:

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Risk-On Momentum Prevails As February Winds Down

The premise of the momentum factor draws on an empirical fact: price trends persist… until they don’t. The latter point is the tricky part and so it’s never quite clear when the party will end and a trend reverses. But based on the numbers through yesterday’s close (Feb. 28), it’s fair to stay that the crowd’s appetite for risk endured for another month in February, extending 2024’s upbeat kick-off in January via a set of ETF pairs that serve as risk proxies. Trends have a shelf life, but it’s not yet obvious that the expiration date is today.

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Macro Briefing: 29 February 2024

* Congressional leaders reach tentative deal to avoid government shutdown
* Biden administration will investigate Chinese cars as security threat
* Rate cuts will likely start this year, says Boston Fed Bank President Collins
* Dept. of Justice launches antitrust probe into UnitedHealth Group
* Why is bitcoin surging again?
* US economic growth revised down slightly to still-solid 3.2% rise in Q4:

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