Daily Archives: August 5, 2021

10-Year Treasury Yield Fair-Value Estimate

The Capital Spectator estimates the “fair value” of the 10-year Treasury yield by using the average estimate from three models:

* GDP growth
* year-over-year Consumer Price Index (headline)
* Federal Reserve assets as % of GDP
* Fed funds target rate
* 1-year/3-year curve to estimate Fed bias

For additional analysis on fair-value estimates of the 10-year yield, see these CapitalSpectator.com articles:

“Estimating Fair Value For The 10-Year Treasury Yield”
“Estimating Fair Value For The 10-Year Treasury Yield, Part II”
“Estimating Fair Value For The 10-Year Treasury Yield, Part III”

Macro Briefing: 5 August 2021

* US Covid-19 cases rebound to six-month high
* Federal Reserve vice chair says rate hike likely in 2023
* Are US jobless claims stuck at a permanently higher plateau?
* Global growth slipped to 4-month low in July via PMI survey data
* Global value of negative-yielding bonds rises to six-month high ($16.5 trillion)
* German factory orders rebounded more than expected in June
* ISM Services Index rebounded in July, reaching record high (since 1997)
* US firms hired substantially fewer workers than expected in July, ADP reports: