• Markets like what they heard from Fed Chairman Powell today
• Strong gains for all our portfolio strategy benchmarks this week

The anti-taper-tantrum rally: Earlier today, Fed Chairman Powell attempted to navigate the treacherous waters of 1) reminding markets that the central bank was approaching the start of winding down its asset purchases without 2) triggering a sell-off of risk assets on the view that such comments meant that rate hikes are near. In fact, the two are separate and distinct, he emphasized.

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Calculating the history of drawdown (DD) for assets is common in the investment community, but the risk metric also provides useful information for analyzing economic data. In particular, monitoring peak-to-trough declines can offer relatively reliable estimates for turning points and estimating the probability that a decline is set to end or that a new downturn has started.

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* Biden’s Afghan exit strategy rocked by two deadly bombings in Kabul
* US vows to continue Afghanistan evacuation after deadly Kabul airport attack
* More terrorist attacks in Kabul are likely, US and allies warn
* Supreme Court blocks Biden’s eviction moratorium
* Tropical Storm Ida may become major hurricane as it heads toward New Orleans
* Three Fed officials say it’s time to start trimming central bank’s asset purchases
* China eyes ban of US IPOs for firms with large amounts of consumer data
* US Q2 GDP growth revised up fractionally to 6.2%
* US jobless claims edge higher, remaining stuck in recent range: