Daily Archives: October 6, 2021

The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 6 October 2021

Finding compelling slices of global markets to overweight isn’t getting any easier. After an extended run higher in much of the world’s risk assets, the low-hanging fruit has been picked. But there’s always relatively attractive markets. All the usual caveats apply, of course, but beggars can’t be choosy.

As an example, consider a new column of data — Spread — that’s now part of the periodic return estimates for the major asset classes on these pages (see this introduction for background). The basic idea is the new addition to the numbers is to identify markets with trailing 10-year returns that deviate substantially from the performance forecasts (based on averaging three models, which are defined below). The logic: If asset x has a trailing return substantially below the expected return, there’s a case for overweighting (and vice versa).

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Macro Briefing: 6 October 2021

* US recession looms if Congress doesn’t raise debt ceiling, warns Treasury Sec.
* Biden reluctantly agrees to downsize Democrats’ ambitious budget proposal
* Taiwan-China tensions at ‘worst in 40 years,’ says Taiwan’s defence minister
* Rebounding imports drive US trade deficit to new record in August
* New Zealand raises interest rates — first hike in seven years
* German factory orders plunged in August
* Global economic growth ticked up in September via PMI survey data
* US business growth posted softest growth in 9 months via Sep survey data
* Healthcare was fastest-growing US sector (again) in September via survey data
* ISM Services Index continued to indicate strong growth for sector in September: