Daily Archives: Apr 14, 2022 at 07:25 am EDT

Choose Your Recession-Forecasting Framework Carefully

Not all recession forecasts are created equal. Meanwhile, US recession forecasts are everywhere. From the lips of famous economists to casual observers of the macro scene, warnings of economic contraction are sprouting like primrose and tulips. The challenge is that the projections don’t come with warning labels, making it difficult to interpret the validity, relevance and timeliness of the forecasts on a case-by-case basis.

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Macro Briefing: 14 April 2022

* Biden announces $800 million in new military aid for Ukraine
* US producer-price inflation rose at record-high pace in March
* Is economic recession the only solution for high inflation?
* Economic shock for US housing market is starting to take a toll
* Wall Street thinks the worst of the inflation surge is over
* Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations holds steady in April
* Amazon adds 5% fuel and inflation surcharge for shippers
* Germany is Russia’s primary enabler, sending $200 million a day
* Economists predict sharp recession for Europe if Russian turns off gas
* Global mining shares continue to show strong upside momentum: