Daily Archives: Apr 26, 2022 at 07:37 am EDT

Waiting For The US Economy To Cry “Uncle”

You can’t swing a cat without hitting a commentator discussing recession risk these days. And for good reason: there’s a growing list of potential threats to the economy. But forecasting a possible contraction in the future and monitoring events in real time are two different things and there’s always ambiguity about whether the two become one and the same. Hold that thought as we consider some of the evidence that while the potential for a new recession is lurking, the numbers published to date still indicate that the expansion is very much alive and kicking.

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Macro Briefing: 26 April 2022

* Russia warns that nuclear war risks should not be underestimated
* Central banks need to aggressively fight inflation, says Man Group’s CEO
* Treasury real yields moving closer to zero after extended run in negative terrain
* The case for a possible return of the bond bull market
* US consumers’ discretionary spending fell in March, consultancy estimates
* Potential for more China lockdowns raises risk for global supply chains
* Twitter accepts Elon Musk’s $44 billion takeover offer
* Dallas Fed Mfg Index continues to indicate softer growth in April
* US economy continued to grow at solid pace in March, Chicago Fed data shows: