Daily Archives: May 11, 2022 at 07:40 am EDT

Outlier Risk, Part V: Largest Difference From Average Value

In recent updates to this series (see list below) I’ve been looking at various methodologies to identify extreme values in a time series, such as the S&P 500 Index. One motivation for this analysis is that detecting so-called outlier values offers context for deciding if the risk of trend reversion is relatively high. Let’s add another metric to the tool-kit for this task: finding the value that marks the largest difference vs the average value over a trailing period.

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Macro Briefing: 11 May 2022

* NATO leaders fret over uncertain end-game for Ukraine war
* US spy chief says Putin is preparing for long conflict in Ukraine
* Fed officials consider why central bank acted slowly to tame inflation
* Household debt in US in Q1 posts largest single-quarter increase since 2006
* US gasoline prices reach record high price
* China consumer annual inflation rises to 5-month high in April: +2.1%
* China’s upcoming wheat harvest is concern for global food prices
* Are oil stocks the new FAANGs?
* UST, a ‘stablecoin’ designed to maintain a $1 peg, plunges
* US small business sentiment in April remains well below long-term average: