Daily Archives: March 15, 2023

10-Year Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 15 March 2023

US interest rates have been on a roller coaster lately, but there’s a case for considering the possibility that yields have peaked. The wild card is the Federal Reserve, of course. The critical question: Will the Fed’s policy decisions over the next several months conflict or align with emerging signs that rates look set to more or less hold steady, if not decline, from current levels?

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 15 March 2023

* Russian fighter jet collides with US drone over Black Sea
* Regional bank stocks rise, recovering some of Monday’s sharp losses
* Moody’s cuts view on entire banking system to negative from stable
* Fed will consider tougher rules for midsize banks after SVB collapse
* SVB collapse fueled by ‘the first Twitter-fueled bank run’
* Should Congress raise cap on deposits backed by the FDIC?
* China’s economy rebounds after Covid lockdown
* US consumer inflation continues to ease in February via 1-year change:

Continue reading