Monthly Archives: May 2023

Macro Briefing: 31 May 2023

* House set to vote on debt-ceiling deal after it clears key committee
* China’s manufacturing sector contracts for second month in May via survey data
* Index funds have become tech-heavy growth funds
* Texas, a leader in wind energy, is turning against its green-energy industry
* Orders continue to slide for Texas manufacturing sector in May
* US home prices rise in March after falling for seven months
* US consumer confidence eases to 6-month low in May:

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Macro Briefing: 30 May 2023

* Biden and McCarthy look for votes to pass debt-ceiling bill
* Debt-ceiling deal, if passed, will be a new headwind for US economy
* Moscow attacked by drones as Russia bombs Ukraine capital for third day
* Nato troops injured in clashes with Serbs in Kosovo
* Biden and newly re-elected Turkish President talk F-16s, Sweden’s NATO bid
* N. Korea says it will launch satellites for real-time monitoring of US and allies
* China’s fading recovery highlights long-building economic risks
* Markets are downgrading expectations that a pause in rate hikes is near
* Small-cap stocks appear to be pricing in a recession:

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Book Bits: 27 May 2023

We Need to Talk About Inflation: 14 Urgent Lessons from the Last 2,000 Years
Stephen D. King
Review via Financial Times
Economic history is rarely taught in universities these days. This is a pity, since it is a better guide to policymaking than Nobel Prize winning theses in economic theory. As a result, every two generations or so we are destined to repeat serious policy mistakes. In Britain the Truss government failed to study the Barber Boom of 1972-73 and arguably the world’s central banks too have failed to learn from the oil price shocks of 1973 and 1980.
Stephen D King’s highly readable and informative book provides a welcome antidote… King’s canter through 2,000 years of inflationary history — from Emperor Diocletian’s debasement of the coinage through to the Federal Reserve’s decision in 2021 to allow inflation to run at above the 2 per cent “central target” — is instructive. Money matters.

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Research Review | 26 May 2023 | US Debt-Ceiling Risk

Common Fallacies Surrounding the 2023 Debt Ceiling Debates
Paul Kupiec (American Enterprise Inst.) and Alex Pollock (Ludwig von Mises Inst.)
May 7, 2023
We investigate the veracity of current and former government officials’ claims made in the context of the 2023 debt ceiling standoff: that it would be unconstitutional for the US to default on its debt; that the US has never before defaulted; and there are no extraordinary measures that could be taken to avoid a government default by mid-summer. We show that all of these claims are demonstrably untrue.

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Macro Briefing: 26 May 2023

* Outline for a possible US debt-ceiling deal takes shape
* Three options to avoid a debt-ceiling crisis without a political compromise
* Europe’s source of economic resiliency–Germany–is breaking down
* New Chinese hacking effort risks derailing hopes for a US-China thaw
* JPMorgan developing ChatGPT-type AI service that gives investment advice
* US GDP growth in Q1 revised modestly higher to 1.3%
* US economic activity strengthened in April via Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index
* Pending home sales in US were steady in April
* US jobless claims edged up last week as prior weeks revised lower:

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Macro Briefing: 25 May 2023

* Risk is rising for no deal on debt ceiling over long holiday weekend
* Default might not stop US Treasuries from trading
* Fitch puts US credit rating on rating watch negative due to “political partisanship”
* Yields surge for soon-to-mature Treasury bills due to debt-ceiling risk
* Federal Reserve officials divided over rate hikes, minutes reveal
* Threats to the global banking system have eased
* Global investment in solar energy set to overtake equivalent for oil production
* Meta continues brutal round of layoffs
* Buying a US home is cheaper than renting in just 4 cities
* Germany slips into recession after revised Q1 GDP reflects 0.3% decline:

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