The only thing that was genuinely surprising in yesterday’s fourth-quarter report on US economic activity was the strength of the increase. The positive directional bias, by contrast, has been relatively clear for weeks, if not longer. Assuming, of course, that you were analyzing a broad array of indicators and avoiding the rookie mistakes of estimating recession risk.

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* US jobless claims rose last week but remain low. But…
* Jobless claims may be an unreliable indicator of the labor market
* New US home sales rose more than expected in December
* Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index indicates softer growth in December
* Japan stock market approaching record high set in 1989
* US durable goods orders unchanged in December following November surge
* US GDP growth in Q4 beats expectations by wide margin:

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