Monthly Archives: January 2024

Macro Briefing: 25 January 2024

* Political blowback is a risk for the Fed and its policy decisions in 2024
* Middle East crisis is starting to weigh on European economy
* Eurozone business activity contracts for eighth month in January: PMI survey
* Revenue surges for globally critical semiconductor firm ASML
* Tesla is forecasting a sharp sales slowdown this year
* US business activity picks up in January via PMI survey data:

Continue reading

US Growth Slowdown Expected For Thursday’s Q4 GDP Report

The Bureau of Economic Analysis appears set to report tomorrow (Jan. 25) that US output slowed sharply in the fourth quarter after Q3’s unusually strong gain. But Thursday’s GDP report is also expected to show that growth was moderate in the final three months of 2023 – news that will support the ‘soft landing’ view that’s been popular with some economists.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 24 January 2024

* Trump appears set to be GOP nominee after winning NH primary
* Eurozone economy continues contracting in January via PMI survey data
* China central bank announces policy support to boost economic growth
* Economic shockwaves spreading from Red Sea turmoil
* Thursday’s US Q4 GDP report may confirm that ‘soft landing’ is here
* Climate economics is relevant just about everywhere
* S&P 500 edged higher on Tuesday, setting another record high:

Continue reading

Looking For The ‘Missing Link’ In Failed Recession Models

The resilience of the US economy in 2023 was a surprise for some (many?) economists. From the start of last year through the first half, and in some case into early Q3, an ample supply recession warnings flowed like wine from the lips of the punditocracy. A careful reading of the data suggested otherwise, but high-risk warnings draw a crowd and so the dark forecasts endured and prospered, running well beyond their shelf life.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 23 January 2024

* Polls predict Trump will effectively be GOP nominee after today’s NH primary
* Goldman’s head of trading still expects four Fed rate cuts for 2024
* China considers stock-market rescue package to address slumping prices
* Japan’s Nikkei stock market index rose to 34-year peak on Monday
* India’s stock market cap is now world’s fourth largest, overtaking Hong Kong
* US Leading Economic Index still signals recession despite growing economy:

Continue reading

US Stock Market At Record While Drawdowns Prevail Elsewhere

Wall Street celebrated on Friday when the S&P 500 Index, the most popular benchmark of US shares, closed at a record high for the first time in more than two years. The celebration, however, was an outlier as the rest of the major asset classes continue to trade below previous peaks in varying degrees, based on a set of ETFs through the close of trading on Jan. 19.

Continue reading

Book Bits: 20 January 2024

Limitarianism: The Case Against Extreme Wealth
Ingrid Robeyns
Review via The Times
Why should we tax the rich? Because that’s where the money is.
A new book putting the ‘limitarian’ case for imposing a ceiling on personal wealth begs an interesting debate about society’s future.
Nobody deserves to be a multimillionaire and no one, ideally, should be allowed to amass a personal fortune of more than £1 million. So says the Dutch philosopher and economist Ingrid Robeyns in a provocative new book, Limitarianism: The Case Against Extreme Wealth, out this month.
Limitarians believe that there should be a ceiling on personal wealth. Just as governments nowadays routinely set minimum legal wage levels, so they also should set maximum nest-egg sizes.
Much wealth is undeserved, amassed through criminality or market abuse of some kind and undermines democracy. Worse, the very process by which it is piled up has the effect of keeping the poor poor. That’s the limitarian view, anyway.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 19 January 2024

* Congress approves short-term funding to avert government shutdown
* What are the factors behind China’s slowing economic growth?
* Bitcoin ETFs are second only to gold funds re: investor popularity
* Trump rules out a US central bank digital currency if he’s elected
* Jobless claims fell last week to lowest level since Sep. 2022
* Philly Fed Manufacturing Index continued to slide in January
* US housing starts fell in December, reversing some of November’s surge:

Continue reading