The value of modeling recession risk based multiple indicators is a hardy perennial. The latest example comes by way of aggregating trends in the 50 US state economies for estimating the odds that a NBER-defined downturn has started or is imminent. As recently as February this indicator looked ominous. But as the latest updates show, the warning turned out to be noise.

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* Fed expected to show discipline in keeping rates higher for longer
* No rate cuts for US till 2025, predict economists at Macquarie
* Wall Street’s home-buying binge comes under scrutiny of lawmakers
* Is US federal borrowing a key factor that’s keeping inflation high?
* Is China’s stockpiling of commodities a prelude to economic ‘nuclear option’?
* Copper rises to 2-year high on soaring demand for green energy transition:

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