The long-term performance forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to increase in November, marking a full reversal of the recent slide in ex ante data. Today’s estimate also marks the highest return outlook in recent history and is modestly above the previous month’s forecast.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Macro Briefing: 3 December 2024
US manufacturing contraction eased in November, according to the survey-based ISM Manufacturing Index. The 48.4 reading is the highest since June, but remains well below the neutral 50 mark.
Major Asset Classes | November 2024 | Performance Review
Global markets delivered mixed results in November. US stocks and real estate estate investment trusts led last month’s winners, rebounding with solid gains following October’s decline, based on a set of ETFs. Commodities and shares in emerging markets suffered the biggest losses in November.
Macro Briefing: 2 December 2024
US jobless claims fell for a third straight week, slipping to a 7-month low. The recent decline and relatively low level of new filings for unemployment benefits suggest that the labor market will remain resilient in the near term. “The underlying trend in first-time claims implies that firms continue to carefully manage their workforce amid an economy at full employment,” writes Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.
Happy Thanksgiving 2024
The festival of eating, giving thanks, and breaking free of the usual routine will keep your editor off the grid for a few days. Regular programming returns on Monday, Dec. 2. Cheers!
Revised US GDP Nowcast For Q4 Still Reflects Modest Slowdown
The US economy remains on track to end the year with a moderate increase in output, according to the median Q4 GDP estimate based on a set of nowcasts published by several sources. Recession risk, as a result, is still a low-probability risk for the near term. The question is whether a sharp change in US economic policy in 2025 will change the calculus?
Macro Briefing: 26 November 2024
Is a reflation problem brewing for the Federal Reserve in 2025? A TMC Research note highlights the potential factors aligning for 2025 that may trigger a course correction for monetary policy: “In the context of potentially reflationary factors brewing for 2025 from various sources, the outlook for ramping up money supply growth could be ill-timed for the central bank’s plans to manage inflation pressures.”
US Stocks Continue To Lead Markets By Wide Margin In 2024
As the final weeks of the trading year come into focus, American shares remain the odds-on favorite to dominate 2024 performance for the major asset classes.
Macro Briefing: 25 November 2024
US growth in business activity strengthened in November, according to PMI survey data. The US PMI Composite Output Index, a GDP proxy, rose to 55.3, a 31-month high. “The business mood has brightened in November, with confidence about the year ahead hitting a two-and-a-half year high,” says , Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “The prospect of lower interest rates and a more probusiness approach from the incoming administration has fueled greater optimism, in turn helping drive output and order book inflows higher in November.”
Book Bits: 23 November 2024
● Tech Agnostic: How Technology Became the World’s Most Powerful Religion, and Why It Desperately Needs a Reformation
Greg M. Epstein
Q&A with author via The.ink
Q: How does it help us to frame “tech” — and that’s a thing distinct from “technology” as you put it in the book — as religion, and are there ways that analytic frame might hinder our understanding?
A: It helps us to understand how far removed from reality a lot of what we’re told about tech. I want people to really look at what we’re doing when we’re interfacing with what this mythical Silicon Valley and its people are doing. When we’re creating these fantasies of a kind of technological heaven, these terrifying scenarios of a technological hell, then we’re literally in the business of creating tech gods.