Author Archives: James Picerno

Macro Briefing: 6 May 2021

* US supports plan to waive intellectual property rules for vaccines
* Treasury Dept. urges Congress to raise US debt level this summer
* World’s biggest pension fund rethinking ESG investing
* Epic rally in lumber prices adds average of $36,000 to cost of new homes
* Global economic growth accelerated to 11-year high in April via survey data
* US Services PMI reflects strongest growth on record (since 2009) in April
* US services growth slowed in April but still strong via ISM data
* Growth in US private payrolls accelerated in April–biggest gain in 7 months:

Macro Briefing: 5 May 2021

* Rates may need to rise to prevent overheating US economy, says Treasury Sec.
* Supply shortages, logistical logjams may force firms to raise prices
* Covid deaths in India may double in weeks ahead, forecasters warn
* Eurozone growth continued to strengthen in April via PMI survey data
* Birthrate in US declined to another record low in 2020
* US factory orders rebounded sharply in March
* US trade deficit surged to record in March
* US gasoline price approaching seven-year high:

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 May 2021

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) in the long run ticked higher again in April, rising to 5.9% annualized — modestly above the previous month’s estimate. The current expected return estimate — defined as performance above the “risk-free” rate — is still well below the previous realized performance peak for GMI, but today’s revision represents a solid bounce off the lows for recent projections.  

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Macro Briefing: 3 May 2021

* Households in wealthy nations amassed record savings–will they spend it?
* Nearly two-thirds of Americans are optimistic on direction of US, poll finds
* Warren Buffett says US economy is red hot with rising inflation risk
* Verizon is considering selling AOL and Yahoo remnants
* Eurozone manfacturing activity continued to accelerate sharply in April
* US dollar on track for longest run of weakness in nine months
* Broad-based commodities bull market is gathering momentum
* Is herd immunity still possible for the US? Maybe not
* US consumer spending rebounded in March
* US personal income spending surged in March due to gov’t stimulus: