Author Archives: James Picerno

Research Review | 26 February 2021 | Inflation

The Increased Toxicity of the U.S. Treasury Security Market
Scott E. Hein (Texas Tech University)
January 2, 2021
This short research paper documents the fact that exclusively watching for rising yields on conventional U.S. Treasury securities to reflect increased inflationary fears in the U.S. is no longer appropriate. With the Federal Reserve seeking to keep short-term nominal yields near zero for an extended period, conventional Treasury yields have not shown the full extent of rising fears of inflation in financial markets. In this monetary environment, the yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) have been more reflective of rising inflation fears. TIPS yields have become increasingly negative in absolute terms during the latter part of 2020. The negative yields on TIPS further suggests that all Treasury investors should be expecting lost purchasing power when they hold onto such securities.

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Macro Briefing: 26 February 2021

* Biden ordered missile strike on Iran-backed militia groups in Syria
* Proposal for federal minimum wage proposal hits roadblock in Senate ruling
* Today’s consumer spending report for January expected to show solid growth
* 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 1.6% on Thursday–highest in over a year
* Inflation will remain contained, predicts Pimco’s chief investment officer
* US GDP growth revised up slightly to 4.1% for Q4
* Durable goods orders for US rose sharply in January — +3.4%
* US economic growth revised up via Philly Fed’s ADS Index
* US jobless claims fell sharply last week but remain unusually high:

Interest Rates Are Rising. Will It Last? Four Key Metrics To Watch

The reflation trade remains in high gear. For the moment, it’s reasonable to view this trend as a return to the pre-pandemic period, before the coronavirus crisis roiled bonds markets and slashed yields. The question is whether the recent rebound in rates has legs and indicates that there’s more to the trend than a return to the pre-pandemic “normal”? Unclear, but the answer is forthcoming in the data, including four key metrics that will likely provide early signals of things to come.

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Macro Briefing: 25 February 2021

* Senate may revise $1.9 trillion covid aid bill in days ahead
* Worrisome mutation of coronavirus spreading in New York, report finds
* Moderna set to test modified vaccine to treat coronavirus variant
* Fed’s Powell tells Congress central bank’s in no rush to raise rates
* Rising 10-year Treasury yield is headwind for risk assets
* Bull market is reversing two-decade slump in supply of new public companies
* Eurozone economic confidence improves on optimism for vaccine rollout
* Risk factors to watch for booming housing market
* New US home sales rose more than expected in January, near 13-year high:

Macro Briefing: 24 February 2021

* Biden: US and Canada to work toward zero emissions by 2050
* Fed Chairman Powell: recovering lost jobs will take years
* Fed’s easy money policy will continue until economy recovers, says Powell
* Value investing’s old rules are history, say academics
* Exports and construction boost German GDP in fourth quarter
* Mid-Atlantic manufacturing activity continues to expand in February
* US Consumer Confidence Index continues to rise in February
* US home prices increased 10.4% in Dec vs. year ago–fastest pace in 7 years:

Macro Briefing: 23 February 2021

* Fed and Treasury officials say US jobless rate is near 10%–well above official rate
* Price tag for severe weather blowback in Texas: $50 billion
* US factories struggling to keep up with snap-back in consumer demand
* Bond yields rise ahead of Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony in Congress
* Eurozone core consumer inflation rebounds to 5-year high in January
* UK unemployment rate at 5-year high in 2020’s fourth quarter
* US Leading Economic Index rose in January, pointing to firmer growth outlook
* Texas manufacturing sector growth accelerates in February
* US economic activity strengthened in January via Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: