Author Archives: James Picerno

Macro Briefing: 23 November 2020

Biden team prepares for double-dip US recession in 2021: NYT
Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine: ‘highly effective’ at preventing virus: CNBC
China says it will respond to US admiral’s Taiwan visit: RTRS
Hospitalized Covid-19 patients surviving at higher rates: STAT
Will Covid-19 unleash pent-up demand? WSJ
G20 nations pledge to extend debt relief in 2021: RTRS
UK’s four-month expansion ended in Nov as coronavirus recession returns: IHSM
Eurozone economy falls back into recession via PMI survey data for Nov: IHSM

Book Bits: 21 November 2020

How I Invest My Money: Finance experts reveal how they save, spend, and invest
Joshua Brown and Brian Portnoy
Interview with co-author (Brown) via NPR
Do you ever wonder how some of the world’s top financial advisors invest their own money?
If so, you aren’t the only one. Last summer, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management Josh Brown wrote a blog post titled How I Invest My Own Money that went viral in the finance and investment community.
Turns out, people are really curious as to how successful investors build their personal portfolios.
This blog post eventually turned into a book with Brian Portnoy called How I Invest My Money: Finance experts reveal how they save, spend, and invest where top investors share their personal investment strategies.

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Fat Tails Everywhere? Profiling Extreme Returns: Part IV

One of the biggest challenges for managing tail-risk expectations is the limitation on clarity imposed by history. For most markets, the post-World War II era provides the primary if not the only dataset. But expanding the opportunity set into some asset classes further reduces the available track record. Think junk bonds and emerging markets, for instance. How can we solve this challenge? Simulations are the first choice in the toolkit.
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Macro Briefing: 20 November 2020

CDC asks Americans to stay home on Thanksgiving: NYT
Treasury Sec. asks Fed to return unused emergency lending funds: PLTC
Georgia recount reaffirms Biden win in the state: AP
Afghanistan braces for acceleration of drawdown in US troops: WSJ
World trade rebounded but is vulnerable to resurgent coronavirus: WTO
High-profile bond defaults in China worry investors: CNBC
Early Christmas shopping lifted UK retail sales in Oct: FT
US existing home sales rose in Oct–highest level since 2006: CNBC
US jobless claims surprised analysts and accelerated last week: CNBC

Revisiting First Principles For Portfolio Design: Part I

Even in a pandemic, the foundation for building and managing investment portfolios persevere. That’s easy to overlook amid a firehose of new investment products, roller coaster swings in markets and a global health crisis. Although there’s (still) no silver bullet for success, at least there’s an obvious, productive starting point: the “market” portfolio.
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Macro Briefing: 19 November 2020

US coronavirus deaths continue to rise sharply: PLTCO
States with fewest restrictions suffer worst virus outbreaks: NYT
Oxford Covid vaccine trials shows encouraging results for older adults: CNBC
Georgia recount expected to reaffirm that Biden won state: RTRS
Asia-Pacific countries eye freer trade policy with Biden administration: RTRS
Today’s US jobless claims report likely to show new applications remain high: WSJ
ECB president pledges robust stimulus in Dec to support Eurozone economy: BBG
Why is bitcoin surging? MW
Trump’s last stand to overturn Biden win: Electoral College delegates: PLTCO
Single-family home construction in US rose more than forecast in Oct: BBG

Macro Briefing: 18 November 2020

Fed chairman: resurgent virus is a threat to the economy: WSJ
Trump orders faster drawdown of US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq: BBG
Trump fires Dept of Homeland cybersecurity chief: CNBC
Data suggest Covid-19 immunity lasts for years: NYT
Controversial Fed nominee Judy Shelton is blocked in Senate: CNBC
US FDA approves first home-testing kit for coronavirus: RTRS
Industrial output in US rebounded in October: MW
US home builder sentiment rises to a new record high in Nov: RD
US import prices were surprisingly weak in October: CNBC
US retail sales growth slowed in October: RTRS