Trump will roll out $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan on Monday: Politico
US budget director: rates may “spike” due to jump in budget deficit: Bloomberg
Vice President Pence raises possibility of US-North Korea talks: Reuters
White House staff roiled by domestic abuse allegations: The Hill 
Is the UK considering a second Brexit vote? NY Times
US wholesale trade inventories rise more than expected in Dec: RTT
Capital Group Chairman and CEO: return of volatility is healthy: Capital Group
The era of big US deficits is back: NY Times

● Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts
By Annie Duke
Summary via publisher (Portfolio)
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it’s difficult to say “I’m not sure” in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don’t always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don’t always lead to bad outcomes.
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The latest plunge in the US stock market left the S&P 500’s drawdown at a bit more than 10%. That’s the amount of red ink that brings usually out the “correction” label. The latest slide has also inspired fresh chatter about the possibility that a bear market is near, which is widely defined as a drop of 20%-plus.
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Senate OKs bill to avert government shutdown, sends it to House: The Hill
Higher US budget-deficit risk is weighing on the stock market too: AP
Asia stocks tumble on Friday after Wall Street’s plunge on Thursday: Reuters
Oil prices continue to slide as supply fears mount: Reuters
New photos show extent of China’s military buildup in S. China Sea: NY Times
Bank of England hints at earlier, faster rate hikes: BBC
US jobless claims fall, nearing 45-year low: Reuters
VIX futures curve in backwardation, signaling outlook for more vol: Bloomberg

The recent plunge in the US stock market ended the extended run of tranquility in equity returns. The media’s metric of choice to cite this change is the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, which surged earlier this week to the highest level in nearly three years, based on daily data. The upward explosion was even sharper on an intraday basis.
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Senate leaders agree to 2-year spending deal: NY Times
Pro-government forces in Syria attack US troops: WaPo
Dallas Fed President: US growth could slip over next 2 years: Reuters
Dept of Homeland Security: Russians penetrated US voter systems: CNBC
Canada Prime Minister raises doubts about revising NAFTA with US: Reuters
US consumer credit increased to a record $3.84 trillion (s.a.) in Dec: MarketWatch
Late-day rise in Treasury yields coincides with late-day slide in stocks: Bloomberg
10-yr T-Note yield rebounds to 2.84%, matching Monday’s 4-yr high: Treasury.gov

The stock market turbulence in recent days has rattled investors, but the Federal Reserve remains on track to lift interest rates at the March policy meeting, according to this morning’s implied forecast via Fed fund futures.
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House OKs bill to avoid US gov’t shutdown, but Senate approval is unclear: Politico
US trade deficit for 2017 at highest level since 2008: The Hill
Trump favors shutdown if Dems don’t agree to immigration demands: The HIll
Germany’s main parties end deadlock and form coalition: Reuters
US job openings fall to seven-month low in Dec: Bloomberg
Growth outlook for UK ticks up: MNI
Market crash claims its first victims for VIX-linked products: Bloomberg 
Analyst Ed Yardeni remains bullish on outlook for equities: Yardeni.com
GDPNow model projects strong 4.0% gain for US GDP in Q1: Atlanta Fed

The 4.1% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday looks ominous, all the more so since it follows last week’s hefty 3.8% decline. But focusing on what just happened distorts our capacity to maintain a healthy sense of historical perspective. As an antidote, let’s step back and consider the latest market action through a longer-term lens.
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World stock markets continue to dive on Tuesday: Reuters
Monday’s 1175-point Dow slide is a record for absolute declines: WSJ
Global policy makers react to stock market plunge: Bloomberg
Re-evaluating the wisdom of tax cuts after the market slide: NY Times
US ISM Non-Mfg Index surges in Jan, near 10-year high: CNBC
PMI: US services sector growth eases to nine-month low in Jan: IHS Markit
Survey data shows global economic growth at 40-mo high in Jan: IHS Markit