Revised data for CapitalSpectator.com’s coronavirus (Covid-19) forecast, based on an 8-model combination, continues to show that global reported cases are on track to rise further in the near term (using the median point forecast as proxy).
The main focus of this proprietary forecasting project is to identify when a downside turning point appears likely, based on the median forecast. For the moment, no sign of peaking on the horizon.
Note, too, that the total number of reported cases has exceeded the last two vintage point forecasts (Feb. 27 and Mar. 4), which implies that the trend remains skewed to the upside. In short, the Covid-19 crisis still looks set to get worse before it gets better.
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