Macro Briefing: 1 June 2023

* House approves bill to lift debt-ceiling limit, easing default threat
* Senate under pressure to quickly pass debt-ceiling bill
* Eurozone inflation falls more than forecast in May, dropping to 6.1%
* China mfg output growth rises to 11-month high in May via PMI survey
* Eurozone manufacturing recession deepens to six-month low in May
* Fed Beige Book highlights cooling economy
* US births fell slightly in 2022 vs. 2021
* Chicago PMI tumbles in May, reflecting deeper pace of mfg contraction
* US job openings unexpectedly rose in April:

Federal Reserve official signals a likely pause in interest rate hikes at the upcoming June 14 meeting, followed by a resumption of hikes later. “A decision to hold our policy rate constant at a coming meeting should not be interpreted to mean that we have reached the peak rate for this cycle,” says Fed governor Philip Jefferson. “Skipping a rate hike at a coming meeting would allow the committee to see more data before making decisions about the extent of additional policy firming.” Meanwhile, Fed funds futures this morning are again pricing in modest odds for a pause at next policy meeting: