Macro Briefing: 11 June 2024

* Fed appears set to leave interest rates unchanged tomorrow
* Three Democratic senators urge Fed to cut rates at this week’s FOMC meeting
* Median inflation expectations for 1-year horizon tick down to 3.2% in May
* EU expected to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles
* Oil companies are reporting record profits
* US small business sentiment index ticks up but remains near multi-year low:

The stock market is a useful indicator for evaluating recession risk, but it should be viewed cautiously and used in context with other metrics, advises a new research note from TMC Research, a division of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth management firm. “The key lesson here is not that the stock market is useless for building models to nowcast recession risk. Au contraire –- it’s valuable, perhaps more so than any one indicator. But a ‘trust but verify’ approach is advisable. Using the equities market alone, and assuming it’s flawless for anticipating the next recession, is assuming too much.” 

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