Macro Briefing: 11 October 2022

* Russia launches second day of missile strikes on Ukraine
* Putin warns of more attacks after deadly Russian strikes across Ukraine
* Goldman Sachs says it’s “too early” to price in a dovish Fed pivot
* Fed’s Charles Evans reaffirms fighting inflation as top policy task
* Fed Vice Chair says rate hikes will slow economy over time
* Bank of England intervenes in bond markets again, sees financial-instability risk
* US stock market looks poised to retest recent lows:

The strong labor market looks set to weaken substantially, predicts Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America. “We are looking for a recession to begin in the first half of next year,” he tells CNN. He adds: “We could see six months of weakness in the labor market.”

US property sector headed for job cuts as rising interest rates pound home sales, says a real estate economist. “There’s going to be a major shakeout,” advises Ken Johnson, a former broker now at Florida Atlantic University. “There are roughly 1.5mn realtors, but that number will be down 20 per cent within 24 months. And those aren’t the only members of the real estate industry that are very dependent on the volume of transactions. There are these tertiary jobs like the appraisers, the mortgage lenders, all the way down to termite inspectors.”