Macro Briefing: 11 October 2023

* Republicans remain divided over choice for House Speaker
* Rising bond yields expected to support pause in Fed rate hikes
* Housing industry urges Fed to halt rate hikes to avoid hard economic landing
* Economist Paul Krugman reverses view and says US budget deficit is too high
* Exxon agrees to acquire shale oil firm Pioneer
* Small business optimism dips in September— inflation is still “top problem”
* Oil market downplays Israel-Gaza conflict… so far

US third-quarter earnings on track to mark start of a rebound, analysts predict. “Third-quarter earnings season is getting under way, and it will likely be much better than the second quarter’s for U.S. public companies. Industry estimates indicate that members of the S&P 500 will report earnings per share were 1.3% higher than a year earlier—a nice improvement from the second quarter’s decline of 2.8%,” The Wall Street Journal reports.