Macro Briefing: 11 September 2023

* Fed expected to pause rate increases in September and then reassess outlook
* US consumer spending set to peak, survey predicts
* Germany looks set to be only major European economy in recession this year
* China deflation eases in August as consumer prices rise
* Huge lithium deposit–key component in electric batteries–discovered in US
* Google antitrust trial re: its search engine business starts this week
* Wall Street cuts recession forecasts as US economy hums along:

Hedge funds ramp up bullish bets on crude oil’s price, according to data that tracks money managers. “A considerable amount of dry powder had been sitting on the sidelines, meaning the recent strong tape could set off a further chase and catch-up in positioning,” says Michael Tran, a global energy strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “This oil market has evolved into as much of a momentum-based market as it is a fundamentally based one.”

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