Macro Briefing: 12 July 2023

* More rate hikes expected no matter what today’s US inflation data reveals
* Possible UPS strike would be “disruptive” for US economy
* Auto industry prepares for contentious talks with unions
* Demand for lithium and other critical minerals is surging, IEA says
* Housing market may be near inflection point as prices look set to spike
* Variations for measuring inflation stir debate on which metrics are best
* World expected to consume more oil than it produces in 2023
* US Dollar Index trades near lowest level in over a year:

Admit it — recession forecasts have been wrong, writes economist Scott Sumner. “You predicted a recession and it didn’t happen? You are about to be interviewed by CNBC? Have no fear, you can always claim that there has been a ‘rolling recession’. It’s like a get out of jail free card,” he asserts on his blog “Rolling recessions do not exist. The fact that weakness in housing was followed by weakness in manufacturing and then a few layoffs in tech doesn’t mean a thing if the overall economy continues booming. Claims of rolling recessions are used merely as an excuse for failed macroeconomic predictions that flowed from bad models.”