Macro Briefing: 12 September 2022

* Ukraine’s counteroffensive recaptures large swaths of territory from Russia
* Possible railway and port strikes could re-snarl supply chains
* Fed’s Waller supports another ‘significant increase in the policy rate’
* Will the reversal of Fed support shock the US Treasury market?
* Treasury Sec. Yellen says oil prices could spike this winter
* Hints from several industries point to easing US inflation in August
* UK economy grew less than expected in July
* Queen’s death may inspire new self-rule campaigns in former British colonies
* US 10-year yield approaches June high:

Can the Fed tame inflation without a recession? Yes, the Treasury market is betting. “If inflation comes down to what breakevens are pricing today, then a soft landing is possible,” says Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock. Meanwhile, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist with Ned Davis Research, advises: “We probably have seen the peak on inflation. Food and energy prices are coming down. There is more room to the downside.”

Companies cite “recession” in Q2 earnings calls at highest rate in 10 years. FactSet reports that recession fears are rising in the US corporate world, based on analysis of conference call transcripts of the S&P 500 companies that conducted earnings conference calls from June 15 through September 8.