Macro Briefing: 13 December 2022

* FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried arrested in Bahamas
* Binance, world’s largest crypto exchange, halts withdrawals of stablecoin USDC
* China challenges US chip curbs at WTO, charging ‘trade protectionism’
* India and China troops clash at disputed mountain border
* European Union plans to tax imports based on greenhouse gas emissions
* China delays closely watched economic policy meeting due to Covid spike
* Keystone pipeline leak is now biggest oil spill in US since 2010
* US consumers lower 1-year inflation expectations via NY Fed survey
* German investor sentiment continues to recover in December
* US 10yr Treasury yield trades near recent highs ahead of Fed meeting:

Analysts debate how long Fed should raise interest rates to tame inflation. “Getting inflation down to 3% or 4% should not be all that hard,” says Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America. “Getting close to [the Fed’s inflation target of] 2% in the next couple years will be much harder and may not even be doable.”

The price of copper, a proxy for the global economic outlook, has been rebounding lately, offering an upbeat counterpoint to gloomy numbers elsewhere. “We expect a moderate increase in global primary copper consumption of about 2% in 2023, similar to 2022,” advise strategists at Fitch. “Mine supply will grow by around 4% in 2023, although disruptions may affect that. A tightly balanced market and minimal global copper stocks (less than two weeks’ consumption) will sustain prices in 2023. Copper’s longer-term prospects are supported by demand from the energy transition.”