Macro Briefing: 13 February 2024

* Rate cuts probably won’t start until the summer, says Atlanta Fed president
* January consumer inflation expectations “mostly stable,” reports NY Fed survey
* Saudi Arabia’s Aramco suspends expansion plans due to green transition
* Natural gas prices fall to 3-1/2 year low on
* Japan’s stock market continues to test multi-decade highs
* US small business optimism remains below 50-year average in January:

Weak gross domestic income data understates the strength of the US economy, advises Goldman Sachs. GDI, an alternative measure of US economic activity, has trailed GDP recently by a wide margin, convincing some observers that the economy is weaker than conventional indicators suggests. But Goldman pushes back on that view: “GDI growth has sometimes been weaker just before the economy goes into recession, leading some commentators to place more weight on it as a signal of inflection points in economic growth,” analysts at the firm write. “However, we see some tangible reasons why GDI probably understates growth.”

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