Macro Briefing: 13 September 2022

* Ukraine asks for more Western weapons after Russian setback
* US railroad strike poised to start, creating new headwind for economy
* Fed set for another 75bps rate hike next week via Reuters poll
* Soft landing becoming more likely for US economy, JP Morgan analysts predict
* US small business sentiment rebounded moderately in August
* Deposits at US banks fell by a record $370 billion in Q2
* UK jobless rate falls to 48-year low in July
* German investor sentiment continued to deteriorate in September
* Inflation expectations fell again in August, reports NY Fed survey:

Peaking inflation will lay groundwork for stock market rally, analyst predicts. “The market believes that come the first quarter, if we continue to go on this glide path where things renormalize, that [the Fed is] going to either pause or signal that they might pause [rate hikes],” says Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse. “If they do that the stock market wants to move ahead of it. The stock market is really going to take off.”

Strategist recommends sticking to US for asset allocation. “From now until the end of the year, it’s really difficult for me to invest anywhere but in the US,” says Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group and author of Geopolitical Alpha.