Macro Briefing: 14 June 2022

* Ukraine conflict could last 10 years if Russia isn’t pushed back, analysis warn
* China delivers its sternest warning to date re: US support for Taiwan
* Markets consider the odds of a 75-basis-point Fed rate hike on Wednesday
* 2yr/10yr Treasury curve inverts, flashing new recession warning
* Foreign stocks stabilize after Wall Street selloff on Monday
* Bitcoin falls sharply after crypto lender halts bitcoin withdrawals
* US 10-year Treasury yield jumps to 3.43%, an 11-year high:

S&P 500’s Monday decline marks the start of a bear market, based on rule of a 20% fall from the peak. “The early stages of a bear market tend to be a ‘take no prisoners’ environment and everything is hit, including diversifiers,” observes Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and co-portfolio manager on the Pimco All Asset Fund. But in time “the market starts a sorting process that can be massively beneficial to diversifiers.”

Consumers expect higher inflation for the year ahead, but expectations remain stable for the three-year horizon, according to polling by the NY Fed.

Fed funds futures are now pricing in high odds of a 75-basis-point-rate hike at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. A repeat performance is expected for the July policy meeting.

Economist Jeremy Siegel says the stock market has priced in a “mild recession” and may be near a bottom. “We’re closer to the lows than the highs. I actually think that the market is already discounting a recession – it’s being priced to that.”