Macro Briefing: 14 June 2023

* Federal Reserve expected to skip rate hike in today’s policy announcement
* Rising stock market implies monetary policy isn’t tight enough to tame inflation
* US economy may be “slipping into an expansion”, says fund manager Tom Lee
* Decoupling from China would be “disastrous”, says Treasury Sec. Yellen
* Global oil demand to peak around 2028 as energy transition unfolds, IEA says
* Eurozone industrial output rebounds in April but outlook remains cautious
* UK economy bounced back in April, expanding 0.2%
* Small business sentiment ticks up in May, but remains near multi-year low
* US consumer inflation eases to 4% annual pace in May–lowest in over 2 years:

“Generative AI’s impact on productivity could add trillions of dollars in value to the global economy,” advises a new study from McKinsey Global Institute, a consultancy. “We identified 63 generative AI use cases spanning 16 business functions that could deliver total value in the range of $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion in economic benefits annually when applied across industries. That would add 15 to 40 percent to the $11 trillion to $17.7 trillion of economic value that we now estimate nongenerative artificial intelligence and analytics could unlock.”