Macro Briefing: 14 October 2022

* Russia expected to hold large-scale exercises of nuclear forces soon
* US inflation data suggests Fed will hike rates again by 0.75-Point
* US social security recipients will receive 8.7% increase in payouts–a 40-year high
* China inflation increases at highest pace in two years in September
* European Central Bank needs more rate hikes, says Belgium’s central bank chief
* UK pension fund sales is warning for global bond markets
* Japanese yen trades at 32-year low against US dollar
* US jobless claims rose again last week but remain historically low
* US core consumer inflation rose in September, reaching 40-year high:

The case remains weak for a Fed pivot on rate hikes in the near term, says Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chair of research at Barclays. “There is a persistence in inflation that if you are the Fed has got to be deeply worrying. Most people have felt like we are just about to turn, whether it be on jobs or on inflation, and it doesn’t happen and it doesn’t happen and it doesn’t happen.” The Financial Times reports that Rajadhyaksha expects the Fed will extend 0.75 percentage point rate hikes through the end of this year and start to slow the hikes to a 0.50 percentage point increase at 2023’s first meeting in early February.

If the Fed pursues its goal of reducing core inflation to 2%, the monetary policy may drive the US into a depression, warns Jeremy Siegel, professor at the Wharton School.