Macro Briefing: 17 October 2023

* Biden will visit Israel in bid to keep conflict from escalating
* Early data suggest the earnings recession is over for S&P 500 companies
* Higher-for-longer interest-rate outlook strengthens
* China Q3 economic data expected to show growth below target
* US holiday spending expected to rebound to pre-pandemic levels
* SEC chief warns AI-linked financial crisis is a threat in years ahead
* NY Fed Manufacturing Index edges down into contraction in October
* US oil production rises to record high in first week of October:

Rising yields for US inflation-indexed Treasuries “are a retiree’s best friend,” writes Morningstar’s John Rekenthaler. “The increase is deeply meaningful. High payouts on nominal bonds can be illusory. If inflation does not follow suit, those securities become bargains, but there is always the possibility of catching a falling knife, as the Wall Street adage goes. A conventional 10-year Treasury that pays 5% will be a good investment if inflation averages an annualized 3% over the next decade but a poor choice if inflation is twice that rate. In contrast, fat TIPS yields persist. They pay and pay and pay.”