Macro Briefing: 18 July 2023

* Victory still not imminent on inflation war, advise economists
* Teamsters president asks White House not to intervene in looming UPS strike
* JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs lower US recession odds
* Slower China growth not a first-order risk for America, according to US officials
* Russia steps up economic war on West by seizing assets of two companies
* CNN Money Fear and Greed index stays in “Extreme Greed” zone on Monday
* US housing market recession appears to be fading
* US chip industry presses Biden to refrain from additional China curbs

A so-called “rolling recovery” will help keep the US equities market rally going, predicts strategist Ed Yardeni. The president of Yardeni Research expects stocks to rise 20% from current levels as a “rolling recession” fades. “I think that’s going to be because there is no recession, because earnings are going to be picking up, and I think because the market will in fact, broaden out,” he explains to CNBC in an interview on Monday. “I think the market was kind of overjoyed with a disinflationary soft landing scenario. That seems to be what we’re in. I’ve been thinking for quite some time that we’re in a recession, but I argued that it’s a rolling recession, not an economy-wide recession. Now I think we’re in a rolling recovery.” The “bottom line,” he says, “is we’ve been in a bull market since October 12.”