Macro Briefing: 18 October 2023

* Biden’s Israel visit is a high-stakes gamble to reduce tensions
* China GDP growth beats forecasts for Q3
* The odds of a soft US economic landing continue to rise
* Homebuilder sentiment in US fades in October, falling to x-month low
* US industrial production rebounds in September
* US retail sales rise more than expected in September:

US 2-year Treasury yield, which is considered the most sensitive maturity for interest rate expectations, rose to a 17-year high on Tuesday (Oct. 17). “The US retail sales data was super strong, no wonder yields have bounced back,” says Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “I guess after Israel lots of people bought the market and have again been long and wrong. It appears that in the greater scheme of things [the conflict] doesn’t look that likely to really impact the US or European economy.”