Macro Briefing: 20 July 2023

* Final Fed rate hike expected, according to new Bloomberg survey of economists
* Recession risk still looks low for the US economic outlook
* Just 1% of all US homes change hands in first half of 2023, lowest in a decade
* Net inflows into Chinese stocks falls below other Asian markets
* China’s use of coal for energy is deepening
* TSMC, world’s largest chipmaker, reports 10% drop in Q2 profits vs. year ago
* US housing starts fall more than forecast in June:

Fed funds futures continue to price in a one-and-done outlook for interest-rate hikes. A majority of economists agree, according to a new survey from Reuters, which reports: “US Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 5.25%-5.50% range on July 26, according to all 106 economists polled.” A majority expect that the next hike will be the last for the current tightening cycle.

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