Macro Briefing: 21 February 2024

* Conference Board abandons long-running US recession call
* US consumers’ food spending’s share of disposable income rises to 30-year high
* China’s economic fallout taking a toll on global banks
* Vietnam set for world’s sharpest increase in wealth, consultancy forecasts
* America’s commercial casinos report record year for revenue in 2023
* Hedge funds pared exposure to Magnificent Seven megacap tech stocks in Q4
* US Leading Economic Index “continues to signal headwinds” in January:

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says there’s a 15% chance the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to tame inflation, which has slowed recently but gradually so, raising concerns that disinflation has stalled. “There’s a meaningful chance — maybe it’s 15% — that the next move is going to be upwards in rates, not downwards,” he told Bloomberg Television on Friday. “The Fed is going to have to be very careful.” Meanwhile, the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield continues to trade modestly above its recent low through Tuesday’s close (Feb. 20).

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