Macro Briefing: 22 August 2022

* US delegation including Indiana’s governor in Taiwan for trade talks
* Russia sees no chance for diplomatic solution to end the war in Ukraine
* Daughter of Putin ally killed in car explosion near Moscow
* US, S. Korea start biggest military drills in years amid threats from N. Korea
* China cuts lending rates again, following a cut last week
* Germany likely headed for recession, Bundesbank predicts
* US ‘effectively peak employment,’ says ZipRecruiter CEO Ian Siegal
* Severe droughts snarling supply chains and lifting food prices
* Fed expected to slow rate hikes to 50 basis points in September
* Business community overwhelmingly expects a recession within next 18 months
* US Dollar Index near 20-year high:

Analysts question the latest pivot from value to growth stocks. “Investors were obsessed about inflation risks in the first half of the year and they are now haunted by worries about recession. That explains the violence of the flip in sentiment to growth stocks from value,” says Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America. But the case for value may still be valid, advises Toby Gibb, global head of investment directing for equities and fixed income at Fidelity International. “This is still a compelling environment for value strategies based on idiosyncratic or contrarian ideas, particularly if a company’s fundamentals are strong. Buying cheap stocks just because they are trading on an inexpensive valuation is not likely to succeed as a strategy. Investors need to be more discerning when looking for companies that can be considered as value.”

Inflation may have peaked, but don’t confuse that will a return to low inflation in the near term, a strategist tells Bloomberg. “Overall, I think inflation has peaked but it may not settle down at an acceptable level anytime soon. There are different degrees of transitoriness if I can put it that way. A spike in a whole variety of commodities will likely abate as the system adjusts,” says Michael Spence, a senior adviser to General Atlantic LLC who’s also a nobel laureate and a professor and dean emeritus at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.