Macro Briefing: 22 August 2023

* Will resilient US economy slow or pause recent slide in inflation?
* Spillover risk from a financial crisis in China appears limited for US
* Why are bond yield rising again? Here are four reasons
* S&P follows Moody’s and downgrades 5 banks amid ‘tough’ conditions
* Charles Schwab joins Wall Street firms in announcing layoffs
* US government shutdown risk is rising, advises Goldman Sachs
* Real US Treasury yields continue to trade at/near 14-year highs:

Should the Federal Reserve continue to pursue lowering inflation to 2%? It’s already fallen from a 9.1% peak last year to 3.2%, which suggests the heavy lifting is in place and so the central bank can ease up. But some economists warn that there’s still more and essential work to do. “They’ve got to get the core inflation down below 3% before you start feeling really good about this,” former Chicago Fed President Charles Evans tells The Wall Street Journal. So-called core inflation excludes volatile food and energy prices and offers an arguably superior measure of the trend in pricing pressure. Evans says core inflation appears headed to 3.5% by early 2024.