Macro Briefing: 23 January 2024

* Polls predict Trump will effectively be GOP nominee after today’s NH primary
* Goldman’s head of trading still expects four Fed rate cuts for 2024
* China considers stock-market rescue package to address slumping prices
* Japan’s Nikkei stock market index rose to 34-year peak on Monday
* India’s stock market cap is now world’s fourth largest, overtaking Hong Kong
* US Leading Economic Index still signals recession despite growing economy:

The timing of a new US contraction can be approximated by monitoring the “boom phase” for payrolls, advises Robert Dieli, an economist who runs the consultancy “The orange ‘boom phase’ bars are now more clearly visible on this chart,” he writes in a new research note to clients, referring to the graph below. “This chart has been quite accurate in predicting the location of the official cycle peak and trough dates, namely those set by the NBER,” he explains. “At some point in the future, there will be another set of gray bars that indicate recession. This chart will have given us a very good idea of where those bars could be.”