Macro Briefing: 25 March 2024

* Can the Fed cut interest rates if the stock market is soaring?
* Resilient economy persuades Fed that US recession risk remains low
* EU launches probe into Meta, Apple and Alphabet with new tech law
* China at ‘fork in the road’ with reforms to boost demand, says IMF chief
* China introduces new ban on US chips in government computers
* Infrastructure’s rise has turned it into a $1 trillion asset class
* US yield curve is inverted for nearly 1-1/2 years, but still no sign of recession:

Bullish sentiment in the US stock market looks extreme, advises Francois Trahan of Trahan Macro Research. “I’ve been tracking the bull/bear spread from Investor Intelligence for as long as I can remember. It’s not the type of thing I look at every week or even every month, but when it feels like sentiment is extreme, I like to be able to quantify it and this is a great tool for that,” he writes on X.

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