Macro Briefing: 27 October 2022

* US mortgage interest rates rise to 7.16%, highest since 2001
* Ukraine war will accelerate shift to cleaner energy sources, IEA forecasts
* Oil giant Shell set to hike dividend after quarterly profit surges
* Europe now has glut of natural gas, sending prices lower
* American middle class facing biggest decline to its wealth in a generation
* New US home sales fell 11% in September after sharp rise in mortgage rates
* US broad money supply continues to slide in real terms in September:

The 3-month/10-year US Treasury yield curve has inverted, suggesting the risk is rising that the US economy will slip into recession. “A one- or two-day inversion is not enough,” says Campbell Harvey, the Duke University finance professor who’s credited with the bond-market yield curves for predicting shifts in the business cycle. He explains via that the 3-month/10-year spread must stay below zero through December for a high-confidence signal that a recession is near. “Just because it inverted yesterday and today is not sufficient to go on the record and say it’s flashing ‘code red,’ but it’s definitely ‘code orange.’”