Macro Briefing: 28 December 2022

* Supreme Court rules that US can not halt the expulsion of migrants
* US holiday sales up 7.6% despite inflation, credit card data show
* Attacks on US energy infrastructure in 2022 highest since 2012
* Russia bans sale of its oil to countries imposing price cap
* Hardline positions by Ukraine and Russia suggest peace talks are far off
* Economist expects decade of slow growth for global economy
* Dallas Fed Mfg Index rebounds in December
* Growth rate for US home prices continues to decelerate in October:

The jobless unemployment rate “is a reliable predictor of recessions, almost always showing a turning point shortly before recessions but not at other times,” writes a researcher at the San Francisco Fed. “Its success in predicting recessions is on par with the better-known slope of the yield curve but at a shorter horizon. Hence, it performs better for predicting recessions in the near term. Currently, this data and related series analyzed using the same method are not signaling that a recession is imminent, although that may change in coming months.”

GasBuddy analyst predicts US gasoline may rebound to $4 a gallon as soon as May. “2023 is not going to be a cakewalk for motorists. It could be expensive,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told CNN. “The national average could breach $4 a gallon as early as May – and that’s something that could last through much of the summer driving season.”