Macro Briefing: 28 July 2022

* Federal Reserve raises interest rates 75 basis points… again
* Senator Joe Manchin, key Democrat vote, agrees to climate legislation
* Senate passes $52 billion bill supporting US semiconductor production
* North Korea returns to saber rattling with new threat
* CBO predicts sharp increase in US public debt burden and deficit
* Eurozone economic sentiment falls sharply in July, signaling recession is near
* US 10yr Treasury yield holds below 2.8% after another Fed rate hike:

Expecting Fed rate hikes to soon slow or reverse is premature, advises Neil Dutta, head of US economic research at Renaissance Macro Research. “I don’t think inflation is going to be cooperating in a way that makes cuts plausible. Powell said repeatedly the economy needs to slow down to meet their goals. A modest recession probably won’t do the job. They are going to have to do more.”

Mixed yield-curve signals: 3mo/10yr Treasury yield curve (shown below) has fallen sharply recently, but remains modestly positive, which implies slow US growth that will sidestep recession. By contrast, the 2yr/10yr yield curve (second chart) remains slightly negative, signaling a recession is near.