Macro Briefing: 28 September 2023

* Government shutdown looks increasingly likely as Sep. 30 deadline nears
* Workers union threatens to expand strikes at Detroit automakers
* Shares suspended in Evergrande, China’s troubled property development
* Oil futures rise to highest level of the year on Wednesday
* US durable goods orders unexpectedly rise in August
* US GDP Q3 nowcast continues to indicate strong acceleration in growth vs. Q2:

US 10-Year Treasury yield continues to rise, trading at 4.61% on Wednesday — highest since 2007. “We are seeing a re-steepening of the curve with lots of yields going higher, including 3-, 5-, 7- and 10-year rates,” says Alex Pelle, an economist at Mizuho Securities in New York. “But is it going to break something? Certainly, there are people who are going to lose money. The speed of these moves is hurting investors, who were long duration. We’re moving higher in rates on a day when nothing else is happening. There’s an asymmetry in these market moves, as investors re-evaluate the yield levels at which they are willing to buy long-term government debt.”