Macro Briefing: 29 December 2022

* Russia launches yet another massive missile barrage across Ukraine
* US requires negative Covid test for travelers from China
* Forecasts of a global recession may be premature
* Consumers have been key to economic growth this year. Can it last?
* European natural gas prices fall to pre-Ukraine war levels
* Investors expect that the US dollar’s strength has peaked
* ExxonMobil sues EU to block new energy windfall tax on oil companies
* US pending home sales in November fall to second-lowest level on record:

Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel advises that stocks may rally in the new year. “I think we should have a very good year for equities, with U.S. markets up 15-20%, which would be surprising,” he writes in a commentary for WisdomTree, an ETF managers where he’s a senior investment strategy advisor. “Most think these gains have to wait for the second half of the year, but I can see this happening in the first half. I expect interest rates to be down with the Federal Funds rate to be between 2-3% by year end and the 10-year interest rate to be 50-100 basis points below where it is today.”