Macro Briefing: 30 November 2023

* Here are the conditions that would foster rate cuts in 2024
* US bonds on track for best monthly performance since 1985
* US mortgage rates fell last week for the fourth time in five weeks
* China factory activity falls for second month in November
* Eurozone inflation decelerates more than expected in November
* US Q3 GDP revised up to +5.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate:

As expectations strengthen that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at some point in 2024, Francois Trahan of Trahan Macro Research advises: “It’s normal for the economy to be doing well at the end of a Fed tightening cycle. In fact, real GDP growth has averaged 3.7% at the end of the last five tightening cycles. The economy grew slightly slower than that in Q3, but still in the right ballpark.”

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