Macro Briefing: 31 August 2023

* US GDP for Q2 revised down to +2.1% from +2.4%
* China manufacturing sector contracts 5th month in August via PMI survey
* One of China’s biggest property developers warns of possible default on debt
* Eurozone inflation is higher than expected in August
* US pending home sales in July post gain for second straight month
* Hiring by US companies slows sharply in August via ADP data:

US temporary-help employment has fallen for six straight months, signaling elevated recession risk, but some analysts question the warning. By some accounts, the recent decline in this indicator, which tends to flag economic weakness, reflects the normalization of temporary employment following an overheated jobs market. “I’m hearing more optimism as we navigate through the third quarter,” says Richard Wahlquist, chief executive officer of the American Staffing Association. “It doesn’t feel like we’re on the precipice of a decline” for the economy.

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